Agricultural commodities have seen a strong wave of gains, driven mainly by supply and logistics concerns. These stem from a combination of worries about fertilizer prices, the security of terminals in the Black Sea, and weather anomalies following El Niño.
WHEAT (D1) Chart
Source: xStation5
Wednesday, however, brings a correction of the recent gains in agricultural commodities. Coffee, wheat, and cotton contracts are down about 2%. Corn is also posting visible declines. Contract prices are under pressure for several reasons.
Overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, another exchange of fire between Iran and the US could be observed. The market is increasingly pricing in a return to regular military operations, despite assurances from the US administration about shifting to “economic” warfare. The mechanism of the negative impact is fairly complex: unrest involving Iran raises fertilizer and oil prices, which fuels inflation fears. Higher inflation means higher interest rates and yields, which may support the dollar and, at the same time, may put pressure on US exports.
Also significant is the pullback toward the average. Many agricultural commodities have risen by double-digit percentages, from the teens to several dozen percent. “Overstretched” RSI indicators could, sooner or later, have contributed to profit-taking.
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