The Australian dollar has strengthened noticeably in recent sessions, supported both by expectations regarding domestic monetary policy and favorable global macroeconomic conditions. Markets are increasingly assuming that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain a relatively hawkish stance, while inflation risks remain elevated. After raising rates by 25 bps in February, economists from major banks such as Commonwealth, NAB, and Westpac now forecast two additional 25 bps hikes in March and May, which could lift the main policy rate to around 4.35–4.50%. Futures contracts currently indicate roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike at the March 17 meeting, compared with around 30% earlier this week, reflecting growing concerns about inflationary pressure driven by higher oil prices and resilient domestic demand.
From a macroeconomic perspective, several structural factors continue to support the Australian dollar. Australia benefits from the ongoing bull market in metals and commodities, being one of the world’s largest producers of resources such as gold, natural gas, and iron ore. Additionally, the country’s trade position remains relatively balanced despite global trade tensions, maintaining strong economic relations with both China and Western economies. Domestically, housing prices remain stable, while the economy is expanding at around 2.6% annually, a result stronger than many earlier forecasts. At the same time, declining US bond yields — with the yield on 10-year Treasuries falling to around 4.11% from 4.21% — together with broader risk-on sentiment in equity markets have weakened the US dollar and supported higher-beta currencies such as the AUD.
In this environment, the AUDUSD pair continued to rise, gaining 0.45% today to 0.71500, marking a new high for 2026 and the highest level since 2023. The pair briefly climbed to 0.7155, breaking above the previous February peak, before slightly pulling back below that level. From a technical perspective, the upward structure remains intact as long as the pair holds above 0.7110. If these levels are maintained, the upward trend could extend toward 0.7300, particularly if the RBA signals further monetary tightening. Conversely, a decline below these supports — especially below 0.7057 — would suggest that the recent breakout was false and that a deeper correction may begin.
🚨EURUSD fights for 1.16 ahead of US CPI
Daily Summary: Markets curb daily gains; Iran to use mines in the Strait of Hormuz🚨❓
📈US100 bounces back above the 100-day EMA
Market Wrap: Energy Stocks Retreat as Hopes for End to Iran War Grow 🌍 (10.03.2026)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
