Shares of Barry Callebaut (BARN.CH), the world’s largest cocoa processor, are down over 12% today following financial results that revealed declining processing volumes in the company’s key markets, signaling weaker demand for chocolate. The company announced another guidance downgrade, which immediately impacted its stock price. The shares fell the most in three months—this marks the second guidance cut in that period.
- Barry Callebaut reported a decline in sales volumes in the third quarter, with North America being the hardest hit.
- The company delivered weaker results both in its industrial chocolate (B2B) segment and the gourmet segment (targeting chefs and confectioners).
- Sales over the first nine months of the fiscal year dropped by 6.3%, and the company now forecasts a 7% decline in volumes for the full FY25.
- The expected EBIT growth has been revised down to only mid-single digits, and analysts anticipate cuts to FY25 EBIT forecasts in the low to mid-single digit range.
- At this point, it remains unclear when the company will return to volume growth.
- According to Citigroup, downward revisions to FY25 EBIT forecasts could reach mid- to high-single digits.
- Morgan Stanley stated that the results were worse than expected, and that Barry Callebaut continues to lag behind the overall growth of the confectionery market.
- Over the first nine months of the 2024/2025 season, the company saw a significant drop in sales volumes, and the updated outlook points to a year-over-year decline of up to 7%, with EBIT expected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit range.
- This marks another difficult quarter for Barry Callebaut. The company is struggling with demand in a key region, and uncertainty in the B2B segment is deepening.
- Nonetheless, Barry Callebaut still holds a dominant position as a leading global player in chocolate processing. In the medium to long term, the outlook may largely depend on a potential decline in global cocoa prices, which could help restore demand. According to JP Morgan, the risk of another guidance cut for the 2026 season remains real.
BARN.CH Chart (D1)
Barry Callebaut shares have fallen below the 50-day EMA, and the area around CHF 1,050, where the 200-day EMA (red line) lies, is drifting further away.
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Source: xStation5
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