- US Core PCE Price Index YoY Actual 3.0% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%)
- US PCE Price Index MoM Actual 0.4% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%)
- US Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expected
- GDP Price Index: 3.6% (est 2.8%; prev 3.8%)
- Personal Consumption: 2.4% (est 2.4%; prev 3.5%) -
- Core PCE Price Index(Q/Q): 2.7% (est 2.6%; prev 2.9%)
Growth slowed while inflation remained slightly higher than forecasts.
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in Q4 2025, well below forecasts, hampered by a record-long government shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and a trade deficit, following 4.4% growth in the previous quarter. Full-year growth was a solid 2.2%, despite an initial decline in Q1, and the BEA estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from the quarterly result; Trump even claimed a 2 percentage point loss just before the release. Despite the slowdown, the data closed the year on a positive note thanks to Trump's easing of tariffs and Fed rate cuts, which supported the stock market and consumption by the wealthy. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m and 3% y/y in December, signaling price pressure, which is becoming crucial ahead of the midterms.
GDP above. Source: XTB
PCE data above. Source: XTB
President Donald Trump claimed the prior year's government shutdown cost the US at least two GDP points, posting this just before the Q4 growth data release amid very weak US economic expansion figures. He blamed Democrats for repeating a "mini" shutdown, criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and demanded lower interest rates. The remarks coincide with a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, tied to Democratic demands for stricter immigration controls after violent incidents in Minnesota. This fuels political tensions as sluggish GDP growth underscores broader economic fragility.
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