BREAKING: US Jobless claims much lower than expected! USDIDX gains 💵

4:30 pm 18 January 2024

US jobless claims reading (1:30 PM GMT): 187 k vs 205 k exp. and 202 k previously

  • Jobless claims (continued)  1.806M vs 1.842M exp. and 1.834M previously

US Housing starts: 1.46M vs 1.425M exp. and 1.56M previously (-4.3% MoM vs -8.7% exp. and 14.8% previously)

US Building permits: 1.495M vs 1.476M exp. and 1.467M previously (1.9% MoM vs 0.6% exp. and -2.1% previously)

US Philly Fed Index: -10.6 vs -6.7 exp. and -10.5 previously

Data showed much lower numbers of jobless claims, while Wall Street expected a slightly higher number than previously. What's more, continued claims data are also much lower than anticipated. Today's reading signals that the US job market is in very good shape, which may signal higher risk of another inflation wave, if any supply shocks occur. In the result, Fed may want to hold interest rates higher and will not cut in January, nor in March. Also, data of housing starts and building permits came in stronger than expected, despite very high real rates in US economy.

The reading of the regional Philadelphia Fed index came in lower than expected, but markets ignored those data and probably read them as less important, especially from the Fed point of view. At the same time, it's another weak, regional reading after 'tragic' NY Empire State. 

We can see that US100 loses after US job market data and US dollar (USDIDX) strengthened after huge rally in 10 year treasuries bonds which increased from 4,09 to 4.12% after today strong macro readings. Also, Fed Bostic commented that if inflation progress slows, the hawkish higher for longer policy will be justified.

Source: xStation5

Source: BLS, Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Research

Source: BLS, Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB Resarch

The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.

Share:
Back

Join over 1 600 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world.