US Challenger Layoffs: 71.321k (Previous 153.074k). The USDIDX continue to slide today, but gains slightly after the Challenger report.
The November Challenger report paints a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market: moderating layoffs on the surface, but historically elevated levels beneath the headline. Despite a sharp 53% month-over-month decline, job cuts remain far above long-term norms and signal that corporate America is still bracing for economic and structural adjustments.
Job Cuts Declined in November — But Stay Historically High
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November layoffs fell by 53% from October’s unusually high 153,074 cuts.
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Even after the drop, November still marked the highest November total since 2022 and the 8th month this year in which layoffs exceeded year-ago levels.
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Historically, layoffs in November rarely surpass 70,000 — this has happened only twice since 2008.
The decline is encouraging, but the broader trend remains elevated, reflecting lingering economic uncertainty and cyclical softening across key industries.
Year-to-Date Cuts Reach the Highest Since the Pandemic
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Employers have announced 1.17 million job cuts through November — up 54% YoY.
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This is the highest YTD tally since 2020, and only the 6th time since 1993 that cuts have surpassed 1.1 million by November.
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Historically comparable periods occurred during recession years: 2001, 2002, 2009, and 2020.
Although the U.S. economy has avoided recession so far, the scale of layoffs resembles early recessionary dynamics, with companies acting pre-emptively to protect margins.
Industries Leading the Layoff Wave
Several sectors are undergoing significant restructuring:
• Telecommunications: +268% YoY
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15,139 cuts in November, largely from Verizon — the worst month since early 2020.
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YTD total: 38,035 cuts.
• Technology Remains the Top Private-Sector Job Cutter
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12,377 cuts in November; YTD: 153,536 (+17% YoY).
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Reflects continued cost discipline, redundancy elimination, and AI-driven restructuring.
• Retail: +139% YoY
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Workforce reductions driven by softening consumer demand, tariff uncertainty, and shifts in shopping behavior.
• Non-profits: +409% YoY
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Severely impacted by federal funding cuts and reduced charitable giving.
• Food Sector (Beef Processors): +26% YoY
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Continues to adjust capacity amid changing agricultural and consumer trends.
Restructuring pressures are broad-based, impacting both cyclical industries (retail, food) and structural ones (tech, telecom, nonprofits).
Why Are Companies Cutting Jobs?
The top drivers of layoffs reveal both cyclical and structural pressures:
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Restructuring: 20,217 cuts in November; YTD: 128,255.
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Closings (stores, units, departments): 17,140 in November; YTD: 178,531.
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Market/Economic Conditions: 15,755 in November; YTD: 245,086.
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Artificial Intelligence:
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6,280 cuts in November.
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54,694 cuts YTD attributed directly to AI automation — a trend accelerating since 2023.
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DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency):
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293,753 cuts YTD — the single largest reason overall.
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Additional 20,976 cuts from indirect funding losses (“Downstream Impact”).
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A notable share of layoffs is being driven by policy-driven and technology-driven factors rather than pure economic weakness, suggesting deeper shifts in workforce composition.
Hiring Plans Hit the Lowest Level in Over a Decade
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Companies announced 497,151 planned hires through November, down 35% YoY.
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This is the weakest hiring outlook since 2010.
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Seasonal hiring also fell to the lowest level since tracking began in 2012, with no new November seasonal hiring announcements.
Companies are not only reducing headcount — they are slowing future hiring as well. This combination often precedes broader labor-market softening.
Source: xStation5
Mixed retail sales data from the eurozone➡️EURUSD reaction muted
Economic calendar: US jobless claims and Eurozone retail sales in focus
Morning wrap (04.12.2025)
Daily summary: euphoria in small caps; copper breaks new highs 🚀
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