– United States: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) december. Actual: 50K vs Expected: 70K vs 64K previously
- US Unemployment Rate Actual 4.4% (Forecast 4.5%, Previous 4.6%)
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.6% expected
- Job growth continued in food services, health care, and social assistance; retail trade lost jobs.
Negative revisions: October revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, November revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000.
US October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expected
December labor market data paint a not-so-bad picture. The most important piece of information seems to be the unemployment rate, which ended the year at 4.4% (Fed's December projection: 4.5%). In addition, November data was revised down from 4.6% to 4.5%. Traders add to bets on fed rate-cut pause after labor dept reports drop in unemployment rate. That's why we can see limited upside reaction on US100 and pullback on USD.
Why is this data important?
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data shows the number of new jobs in the US outside the agricultural sector, covering most of the economy, and is a key indicator of the health of the labor market. An increase in employment indicates a healthy economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown. The report influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as a strong labor market increases inflationary pressure, while a weak one gives more leeway in monetary policy. The NFP also affects financial markets, including the dollar exchange rate, bonds, and the stock market, reacting to results that are better or worse than forecasts. In short, the report is an “economic thermometer,” helping investors and policymakers assess the strength and direction of the economy.
Treasury futures edge lower, while Fed rate cut premium fades for this year after December jobs report showed a headline print below consensus with unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% and average hourly earnings printing above estimate. The US100 is however climbing and testing 25,800 point barrier. Source: xStation
Daily summary: Markets recover optimism at the end of the week
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