Tuesday was the most successful day in July for the US Nasdaq 100, despite the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict.
Is AI coming back into favour?
The index strengthened by 1.9%, supported by an improved sentiment towards companies in the broader AI ecosystem. It is now less than 5% below the all-time high set in June.
Figure 1: Impact of Sectors on Nasdaq 100 Performance (21.07.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 22.07.2026
Among Tuesday's biggest winners were companies from the semiconductor, DRAM, and "neo-cloud" sectors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose by approximately 5% yesterday. Nebius, Sandisk, Micron, Teradyne, and Seagate gained over 10%.
Figure 2: Winners and Losers of the Day on Nasdaq 100 (21.07.2026)
Source: XTB Research, 22.07.2026
Support was offered by, among others, a very optimistic report from Bank of America analysts, who added Micron to their US 1 List, a portfolio of stocks in which they have the highest investment conviction.
In recent days, there has also been much talk about the growing popularity of Chinese open-source AI models driving demand for high-speed memory. Even models with very cheap API access require massive amounts of HBM and DRAM memory.
Oil prices continue to rise
This is all happening against the backdrop of a continuing escalation of the US-Iran conflict. We have seen the 11th consecutive night of bombings. Although mediators (Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan) were supposed to present a 10-day ceasefire proposal to both sides yesterday, crude oil and LNG prices continued to rise. A barrel of Brent now costs over $94, which is over 10% more than a week ago.
Time for the giants
We are undoubtedly facing the most intense day of this week regarding the publication of results from the largest US companies. Market attention will, of course, focus on the giants – Tesla, Google, AT&T, and IBM. Their performance could significantly influence the indices they are part of (including the Nasdaq 100) and broader market sentiment.
Tesla has just had a quarter with record delivery results. The question investors are asking themselves is: how much have margins suffered? The market wants to know whether any price cuts and costs to stimulate demand have hit business profitability hard.
Equally important (if not more so) will be any comments from Elon Musk on the future of the company (e.g., progress on Tesla's low-cost model or the development of autonomous vehicles).
In the case of Google, attention will focus on whether the astronomical spending on artificial intelligence is already starting to pay off. In the first quarter, the order backlog for cloud services grew to $460 billion. Investors want confirmation that this was not a one-off but a lasting trend driven by the implementation of AI-related solutions.
This is particularly important as the company recently raised its CAPEX forecast for this year to the range of $180-190 billion. Wall Street will be looking for revenue growth resulting from these higher investments.
Technical analysis
Figure 1: US100 [D1] (19.01.2026 - 22.07.2026)
Source: xStation, 22.07.2026
Currently, the market is in a correction phase after a very dynamic rally that lasted from the end of March to the beginning of June. The index is oscillating around 29,100 points, testing key support levels in the form of the 50-day moving average (EMA 50) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
The RSI (14) indicator suggests a slight advantage for the selling side, currently sitting slightly below the neutral level of 50 (at 45.7). The MACD is also in the bearish zone, although it is worth noting here that the bars are starting to flatten slowly.
Maintaining current levels around the 50-day moving average will be key to a quick return to the upward trend. If the bears push the price permanently lower, the next natural support level will be the 100-period moving average (around 28,300 points).
Economic Calendar: Time for Tesla and Google Earnings (22.07.2026)
Morning Wrap: AI companies and gold back in favour? (22.07.2026)
Daily Summary: Semiconductors Rise in the Shadow of Geopolitical Turmoil
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