The EUR/USD pair is currently trading around 1.15375 USD per euro. Today’s movements are shaped by a combination of fundamental factors, with weaker German data competing with rising market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Market attention is focused on today’s US PPI data, which could determine the next moves for the EUR/USD pair.
Source: xStation5
What is shaping the EUR/USD today?
German GDP and business sentiment
The latest third-quarter data show that German GDP recorded no growth quarter-on-quarter, indicating a virtual stagnation of the economy. Additionally, weak results from the German Ifo business sentiment index reflect deteriorating expectations, despite a slight improvement in the current economic situation. As Germany is the largest economy in the euro area, weak data and declining business sentiment reduce the euro’s appeal to markets. Slower economic momentum, combined with a delayed fiscal stimulus in the euro area expected only in 2026, lowers expectations for further expansionary measures by the European Central Bank.
Fed expectations and today’s PPI data
Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December, with the probability estimated at around 75–80%. Fed officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, emphasize that the current policy remains moderately restrictive, and the US economy, particularly the labor market, may require further easing. In addition, markets are awaiting today’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which could strengthen or weaken expectations regarding Fed policy. The prospect of a rate cut weakens the dollar against the euro, providing an upward impulse for EUR/USD even when euro fundamentals remain relatively weak.
Situation in Ukraine
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are creating a certain positive sentiment in markets, although the impact on euro exchange rates remains limited for now. Geopolitical optimism, however, could support the common currency in the medium term.
A New Era of AI Chips: Google Challenges Nvidia
BREAKING: Germany’s preliminary GDP reading in line with expectations
Morning wrap (25.11.2025)
Daily summary: Tech leads Wall Street rally, dollar stable despite dovish Fed (21.11.2025)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
