EURUSD is struggling to find a direction at the beginning of a new week. The main currency pair is trading little changed on the day even in spite of a decent beat in German Ifo indices for March. Headline Ifo index jumped from 91.1 to 93.3 (exp. 91.0). This beat was driven mostly by a jump in expectations subindex from 88.5 to 91.2 (exp. 88.3). Nevertheless, EUR stayed fairly muted following the release. A number of ECB speakers scheduled for today may provide some volatility on EUR-related FX pairs later into the day. However, euro and other European assets are expected to get more volatile in the second half of the week as flash CPI data from the Old Continent will be released. German reading on Thursday, 1:00 pm BST and French reading on Friday, 7:45 am BST will be the most closely watched ones. Both are expected to show significant deceleration.
Taking a look at EURUSD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair halted the recent drop at the 50-period moving average (green line) near 38.2% retracement of the downward impulse launched at the beginning of February. However, subsequent rebound was halted today at the resistance zone marked with 50% retracement and the pair has struggled to determine direction for the next move since. A failure to break above could lead to a retest of the aforementioned 38.2% retracement in the 1.0710 area. On the other hand, a break above would pave the way for a test of swing levels marked with 61.8 and 78.6% retracements in 1.0830 and 1.0920 areas, respectively.
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