The pound snaps its winning streak following the release of the latest UK GDP data. Economic growth slowed noticeably, although June figures point to a fairly resilient consumer. UK bond yields remain largely unchanged, but GBP/USD—trapped in consolidation—found a reason to resume its decline after bouncing off immediate resistance.
Technical Analysis: GBPUSD (D1)
GBP/USD is trading in a firmly entrenched sideways trend, partially reflecting monetary policy uncertainty in both economies, with the exchange rate currently sitting right where it started the year.
Following yesterday's breakout above the local peak at 1.3545, quotes are currently testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3480), which coincides with the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10; yellow). Holding the price above the cluster of moving averages (EMA10, EMA30, and EMA100 at 1.3400–1.3470) will be crucial to preserving the recent rebound and attempting to break out of the sideways trend. The RSI (14) at 58.2 leaves room for upside, though the absence of a bullish macroeconomic impulse also means there is no springboard for a sharp rally. The main resistance remains the local peak at 1.3545, while key support lies at 1.3440 (38.2% Fibo).
Source: xStation5
What is driving GBP/USD today?
-
UK GDP growth decelerates: UK GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in Q2 from 0.6% in Q1. However, June came in better than expected, with the economy expanding 0.3% against forecasts of a 0.1% decline.
-
Services-led expansion: Growth was overwhelmingly driven by a 0.5% jump in the services sector, led by a 2.7% gain in information and communication. Construction output rose 0.3%, while industrial production remained flat across the quarter.
-
Consumer resilience vs. looming headwinds: UK economic resilience has been sustained primarily by consumers who maintained their spending, buoyed by sunny weather and the World Cup atmosphere—benefiting small retail, hospitality, and advertising. However, this resilience could gradually evaporate as Middle East conflict disruptions and a 13% increase in the energy price cap hit household budgets. Chancellor John Healey emphasized the need to drive growth nationwide amid these ongoing challenges.
Economic Calendar: US PPI, jobless claims and Fed speeches to bring more insight after uneventful CPI (13.08.2026)
Morning Wrap: Wall Street tech rally spills over to Asia. Iran toughens its negotiation stance (13.08.2026)
Daily Summary: Wall Street Gains After CPI Data 📈 Gold and EURUSD Move Lower
Wheat jumps 4% 🔼 USDA estimates lowest U.S. crop since 1970
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
