-
Geopolitical Tension: Oil remains volatile as markets weigh Trump’s 5-day ultimatum against ongoing Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation.
-
Key Support: Brent has successfully defended the $95 level, keeping the broader 2026 uptrend intact despite recent 10% swings.
-
Market Signal: While backwardation shows tight supply, a $1–2 drop in calendar spreads would signal a definitive trend reversal.
-
Geopolitical Tension: Oil remains volatile as markets weigh Trump’s 5-day ultimatum against ongoing Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation.
-
Key Support: Brent has successfully defended the $95 level, keeping the broader 2026 uptrend intact despite recent 10% swings.
-
Market Signal: While backwardation shows tight supply, a $1–2 drop in calendar spreads would signal a definitive trend reversal.
What is happening with oil?
Brent crude narrowed its losses during yesterday's session, despite an earlier move of approximately -10%, an exceptionally rare occurrence in this market. The sharp price drop followed statements by Donald Trump suggesting that negotiations for a deal with Iran are underway and an agreement is expected shortly. Trump called off the planned strike on energy infrastructure, granting Iran a 5-day window to finalize talks. Although Tehran officially denied that any negotiations are taking place, the current dynamic is beginning to mirror last year’s trade negotiations with China.
Are peace negotiations actually taking place?
While Donald Trump suspended American strikes on key energy facilities, Israeli-led airstrikes continued overnight, focusing primarily on gas-related infrastructure. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and other regional states, including Bahrain and the UAE. The Wall Street Journal reports that Persian Gulf nations are considering deeper involvement in the conflict. Saudi Arabia has granted the U.S. access to its airbases for operations and is weighing the direct use of its own military forces. Meanwhile, the UAE is directing its efforts toward striking Iran’s financial and economic foundations.
Despite Iran’s official rejection of the dialogue narrative, media reports suggest that negotiations are being conducted through "back channels," with Pakistan offering to act as a mediator. There is a risk that Donald Trump is overly optimistic regarding signals of de-escalation, which may only be coming from one Iranian faction, while hardline elements of the regime remain opposed to peace. The situation recalls events from 2025, when Trump announced a breakthrough with China after both sides raised tariffs above 100%. Despite initial denials from Beijing, an agreement reducing rates to 30% was signed two weeks later. Currently, Iran demands a full lifting of sanctions, financial reparations, and a U.S. withdrawal from the region, while Washington insists on the total suspension of Iran’s nuclear program.
Market Situation
Brent crude is currently trading around 100 USD per barrel on the May contract, while the April contract remains significantly above this level. Following yesterday's halt in the sell-off, today’s gains remain limited. Given the 5-day deadline set by the U.S., volatility may temporarily subside, though it must be noted that Israel has not withdrawn from military operations against Iran.
On the technical front, key support at 95 USD per barrel remains intact, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This level has previously served as a site for significant price reactions. For now, the uptrend line—drawn from the lows of late February and January 10—remains unbroken.
The forward curve remains in pronounced backwardation, and calendar spreads through the end of the year remain high (though lower than the extreme levels seen in 2022). A reduction in calendar spreads of approximately 1–2 dollars would signal a genuine peak and the potential for a deeper decline in the coming weeks. Notably, forward prices for early 2027 are holding above 80 USD per barrel, significantly higher than levels seen before the conflict began.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
Economic Calendar - PMI data takes center stage as oil resumes climb
Morning Wrap - Oil Resumes Climb (24.03.2026)
Daily Summary: Market Rollercoaster! Markets Up, Oil Drops Below 100 Dollars!
What’s next for Iran?
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
