Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures are gaining nearly 1% today. While they have rebounded somewhat from yesterday’s sell-off low around 17,600 points, it is hard to speak of a radical improvement in sentiment. The index is still struggling to break above resistance at 18,000 points and is currently trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 upward wave.
- Yesterday, Trump announced that he would impose 50% tariffs on China starting April 9 if China does not withdraw its 32% retaliatory tariffs. Since then, we have seen no significant response from China apart from yesterday’s statement from the Ministry of Commerce, emphasizing that China will never accept "coercive" policies from the United States.
- As long as the threat of 50% tariffs on China (which would raise the total tariff burden to 70%) remains on the table — and the risk persists that Donald Trump is not "bluffing" — demand for market hedging is likely to stay high. This would explain the relatively elevated VIX, hovering around 32 points. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices, including US100 — which is particularly sensitive to potential trade retaliation from China — may continue to struggle to break above key resistance levels.
- Earnings season in the U.S. kicks off on Friday, with American banks expected to broadly comment on the state of U.S. consumers. Consumer credit data reported yesterday surprised with a decline of $0.8 billion, compared to positive expectations of $15 billion. Several surveys suggest consumers may have reduced spending in recent weeks. This makes Nasdaq 100 particularly sensitive — both to positive and negative commentary from the US banks. Until then, the focus remains on the "trade war" and any potential "deals" Trump may announce as negotiations with several countries continue.
US100 (D1 interval)
The 200-day and 50-day EMA averages are on track to form a "death cross" on the daily chart, signaling a potential longer-term trend reversal. The index is trading about 10% below its 200-day EMA (red line). A key zone for bulls to reclaim lies around 19,300–19,500 points, where significant past price reactions occurred. A deeper sell-off and further panic could bring a test of the 15,000-point area, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. In the short term, the greatest risk appears to be the possible escalation of tariffs on China from 34% to 50%, which would raise the total tariff burden to 70%, further complicating the already challenging environment for U.S. tech companies and affecting the broader inflation outlook in the United States.
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