Cocoa slumps 5% falling below $3000 firs time since May 2023 📉

Cocoa futures (COCOA) on ICE slumped today, down more than 5% and falling below $3,000 per tonne - levels not seen since May 2023. The market is being hit by chronically weak physical demand, a sharp slowdown in processing, favourable weather across West Africa and the prospect of a strong harvest season, which is also weighing on returns for African farmers.

CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) analysis (data as of February 17, 2026)

The latest CoT report for cocoa suggests the market is in a transition phase rather than at a point of clear trend acceleration. The key weekly change is a drop in open interest of more than 8,000 contracts (around -5%). This indicates that some participants have closed positions, leaving less “fresh fuel” for a sustained, directional move. A decline in open interest often coincides with a cooling impulse and a shift toward consolidation.

In terms of positioning, the largest speculative players (Managed Money) remain net short—holding more short than long positions—giving the market a mildly bearish bias. At the same time, producers and other commercial participants reduced their hedges (cut short positions), which historically can signal that supply-side pressure is easing. In other words, speculators are still leaning bearish, but the “industry” is no longer adding to that downside pressure.
It is also worth noting the concentration of short positions within one trader category. A meaningful share of shorts is held by a relatively small number of entities, which increases the risk of a short squeeze: if a bullish catalyst emerges (for example, a weather or supply-related headline), forced short covering could trigger a sharper rebound.

Overall, the report does not point to an extreme overbought or oversold setup. Positioning shows a moderate bearish tilt among funds, but with participation declining and hedgers partially stepping back. In the near term, this raises the odds of consolidation or a technical rebound; a return to a clear downtrend would likely require renewed short build-up by funds alongside rising open interest.

Source: CFTC, CoT

COCOA (D1)

Source: xStation5

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
_cfuvid
OClmoOot	Expiration date 18262 days

Cookie name	Description
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
countryIsoCode
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days
_gid	Expiration date 1 day

Cookie name	Description
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_ttp	Expiration date 389 days
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 389 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days
_rdt_uuid	Expiration date 89 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days