Cryptocurrencies started the week in a better mood today, although global investors have been buying the dollar and selling off the euro since the early morning hours, ahead of Thursday's decision by the ECB, which will almost certainly decide on its first interest rate cut. It seems that any dovish signals from central banks may indirectly and speculatively support BTC quotes. Ethereum is trading today up less than 1% to $3830 against a nearly 2% rally in BTC, which is trading near $69,200.
News
- A forecast by Peter Brandt, who is closely watched in the industry's cryptocurrency social-media, predicts that the price of BTC will peak in a cycle between August and September 2025; in the vicinity of $130,000. Brandt pointed out the similarity to the previous three cycles, marked by 'halving' but suggested a 25% chance that the price peak in the current bull market has already been reached, as from halving to halving Bitcoin's 'growth cycle' has shortened
- Glassnode data show that miners' selling is being significantly absorbed by inflows into ETFs, which are changing the supply and demand landscape. On-chain data signals that the buying trend in the long-term investor group (those holding BTC longer than 6 months) has resurged again in recent weeks.
- Also, the MVRV of this group of investors (which measures the % of unrealized profit), is very high, but still half the levels reached during previous cyclical euphoria peaks. CryptoQuant's data shows that centralized crypto exchanges hold 'only' 10.6% of the total ETH supply. These are very low, historically, and from May 23 to June 2 from centralized exchanges, investors sent more than $3 billion worth of ETH to external portfolios. Some have suggested that such an environment may be conducive to a supply shock; on the other hand, there is talk of a potential overhang in Grayscale's Ethereum Trust, which holds ETH worth about $11 billion and, like Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, may begin selling, once spot ETFs are allowed.
This week, there will be no shortage of factors that will affect the valuations of risky assets; including Bitcoin and Ethereum. ISM manufacturing and services data from the U.S., PMIs from Europe, Thursday's ECB conference and Friday's NFP report will certainly be closely watched by exchange-traded, and by extension, cryptocurrency investors.
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Looking at the hourly interval, we see that the BTC price has broken out above the all-important moving averages (SMA200, SMA100, SMA50) and the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the April/May upward wave. The main medium-term bullish target is the levels around $75,000, but important support is also found at $70,000 and $72,000 per BTC, where recent increases have been halted.
Source: xStation5
Funds have continued to accumulate significant amounts of BTC for several weeks, and the stage of dominant selling ended relatively quickly. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance LP
Six months after the launch of spot BTC ETFs, nearly $14 billion has already flowed into exchange-traded Bitcoin buying vehicles; many times more than into 'mainstream' SPDR funds for the S&P 500 or semiconductors. The long-term behavior of funds holding significant amounts of BTC could reduce supply and lead to a supply shock, or conversely, lead the market into deeper phases of panic if investors start selling off shares en masse. Source: XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance LP
Long-term addresses are buying BTC again?
In March, long-term investors sold a record 519,000 BTC since 2021, but it was actually about 400,000 BTC, as 20% came from the sale of investors' shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF. In previous cycles around the peak, LTH investor sales were 836 and 971 thousand BTC / month, respectively. Moreover, a renewed trend of BTC accumulation by LTHs is currently evident, signalling a potential exhaustion of sales forces in this investor group. 
Source: Glassnode
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