- The stock market has been doing poorly since the beginning of this year due to a drop in expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Today, gains in the US were driven by the technology sector, especially semiconductors stocks
- The Nasdaq is gaining 0.6% in the final hours of trading, although at one point it was gaining as much as 1%. The S&P 500 is gaining less than 0.3%. Dow Jones is trading under pressure
- The gains on Nasdaq 100 are driven by better results from TSMC and comments from the company, which pointed to AI as a key growth driver. The company points to 20% revenue growth in 2024 and a general rebound in global semiconductor demand. TSMC gained about 8% today.
- Apple shares also gained close to 3%, supported by a positive recommendation from Bank of America analysts, who highlighted the prospect of VR and AR revenues
- Recovery was also evident in Europe. The DAX gained 0.8% and the CAC40 gained 1.13%. The WIG20 rose 1.09%. After Richemont's better-than-forecast results, strong gains were seen among luxury companies
- Expectations for rate cuts in the U.S. have fallen, and are already just above 50% for the Fed's March meeting. This is a result of consecutive good macroeconomic data. Unemployment claims showed a drop in initial claims to 187,000, the lowest level since February 2023.
- On the other hand, after the weak NY Fed, the Philadelphia regional index is also not encouraging. The index came in at -10.6 for January, with an expectation of -7 and a previous level of -12.8
- Data from the real estate market are coming out positively. We can see an increase in building permits and a smaller decline in housing starts than expected.
- U.S. gas inventories fall less than expected at -154 bcf against expectations of -165 bcf. Gas loses more than 5% today before rolling in a range of about 15% down.
- Crude oil inventories fall more sharply than expectations at 2.5 million barrels, with an expected decline of 0.3 million. Gasoline and distillate inventories, however, are rising but oil rebounds due to inventories and Biden's announcement that attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen will continue, causing further concern about the situation in the Middle East
- WTI crude oil returns above $74 and gains more than 2%
- EURUSD tests the 1.0850 area, with US yields rising to 4.12%
- The Australian dollar is gaining today as the only currency in the G10, despite dire labor market data. Employment fell by 65,000, with an expected increase of 17,000. The unemployment rate, however, remains unchanged at 3.9%.
- Bostic indicates that there is no rush to cut interest rates in the US. According to him, rates will be cut in Q3 2024
- Bank of America CEO Moynihan indicated that the bank expects 4 rate cuts of 25 bps, in 2024
- Cryptocurrencies are losing. Bitcoin is trading 3% lower and slipping to $41,000. Some altcoins, such as Apecoin are trading at double-digit declines
Source: xStation5
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