Daily Summary - Crude oil below $100 amid ceasefire

• The truce between the US and Iran, reached just before the start of the April 7, 2026 bombing wave, knocked Brent crude prices from $120 to as low as $90, though fundamentals remain strained. Iran is demanding that Israel halt its attacks on Lebanon, threatening to scrap the deal.

• Countries such as Qatar and Kuwait report that attacks from Iran have continued, which may indicate a lack of compliance with the agreement. Iran refuses to accept Israel's attacks on Lebanon.

• White House sources report that Iran's 10-point peace plan, published today, differs from what the United States received via Pakistan. Nevertheless, the ceasefire agreement is to be respected, and peace negotiations are set to begin on April 10. However, many tension points remain that may be unacceptable to one side or the other.

• Over 800 ships (approx. 150-200 million barrels of oil equivalent and LNG) are stranded in the region. Even with total peace, a return to full capacity will take years (due to damage in Qatar, Kuwait, and Iranian petrochemicals).

• Iran is seeking to formalize transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz ($2 million per ship), which could become a new, permanent component of the price per barrel.

• US crude inventories rose by 3.08 million barrels (7th consecutive weekly build), serving as a bearish signal for raw material prices.

• Crude oil reacted with a rebound to $95 per barrel following reports that Iran is halting ship passage until Israel stops attacking Lebanon. The White House indicates that Lebanon issues were not considered in the ceasefire plan.

• Simultaneously, distillate inventories fell sharply (-3.14 million barrels), maintaining high refining margins and preventing rapid price drops at gas stations (especially for diesel).

• The forward curve in the oil market remains stable for November and December contracts, which were traded slightly below $80 per barrel last week and today.

• The de-escalation of the situation led to a rise in EURUSD toward the 1.1700 level, though a slight pullback occurred during the day.

• US futures recorded a 2-3% rebound today. The US500 is trading at its highest level since March 6.

• Bitcoin is rebounding today toward $72,000 amid US dollar weakness. Iran reportedly intends to collect Strait of Hormuz transit fees in cryptocurrencies.

• Gold is recording a clear bounce today, reaching as high as $4,800 per ounce, while silver rose to $77 per ounce. Prices edged down slightly during the day.

• A strong price retreat was also observed in markets that benefited from high oil prices. Sharp pullbacks are seen in corn, sugar, and wheat.

• March Fed Minutes showed that interest rate hikes could potentially return to the table in the event of a sustained inflationary shock. Nevertheless, the Fed itself indicated that the current assessment of the situation was very difficult.

• The Fed is paralyzed by "two-sided risk": it fears entrenched inflation but simultaneously warns that the fragile labor market could suddenly snap. The minutes included statements that the Middle East conflict could lead to a labor market collapse, which in turn would justify a return to rate cuts.

• The market is ignoring the Fed: The dollar and stock markets did not react to the hawkish tone, as investors are dismissing old data from March and focusing on whether the 14-day Gulf truce will survive.

Oil has rebounded slightly higher in last hours as Israel strikes on Lebanon was negatively viewed by Iran. Source: xStation5