Daily summary: Fed comments weigh on sentiment

10:02 pm 17 February 2023

  • European indices finished today's session lower, despite producer inflation in Germany eased less than forecast in January to a 16-month low, while UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in January thanks to sales promotions and lower fuel prices.  Dax fell 0.33%, CAC 40 lost 0.25% and FTSE 100 dropped 0.10%.
  • The Dow fell 0.10%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down 0.8% and 1.3%, respectively, as hot economic data fuelled speculation of the Federal Reserve raising rates for longer which was confirmed by latest hawkish comments from US policymakers. 

  • Loretta Mester and James Bullard called for additional interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

  • Fed's Bowman said that policymakers are not seeing what they need to see in terms of inflation, and the numbers are erratic. Recent data indicates we have yet to be effective and we need to raise rates until we reach a sufficiently restrictive level.

  • Fed's Barkin said that he's not looking at recent labor market and retail sales figures as they could be skewed by seasonality and data adjustments. Most likely this statement sparked a dollar sell-off.

  • Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan expect Fed to raise rates at every meeting by mid-year, bringing rates to 5.5%

  • Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Friday and are heading for an almost 5% weekly drop, pressured by lingering concerns about a potential recession-driven demand downturn.

  • US natural gas futures fell further below $2.3/MMBtu on Friday, the lowest since September 2020 and tilting towards a 10% weekly drop as mild weather kept heating demand weak and stockpiles above usual levels. 

  • Precious metals fell sharply in the morning, however buyers managed to erase losses later in the session. Gold bounced off 7-week lows at $1820 as the dollar gave back some of its recent gains.

  • Dollar index jumped to 104.60, hitting its highest levels in six weeks, however bulls failed to uphold momentum and price is moving towards major support at 103.50. EURUSD bounced off daily lows at 1.0610 and approaches major resistance at 1.0700. 

  • Binance denies reports that it's considering delisting all US-based cryptocurrencies. Major cryptos rebounded off daily lows and are moving towards recent highs. Bitcoin trades at $24,300 mark while Ethereum hovers  below resistance at $1700.

GOLD launched a recovery move as sellers failed to break below 100 EMA (purple line). Source: xStation5

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