Daily summary: Fed members give no end to hikes

8:58 pm 6 October 2022

- We are seeing a return to falling indices on Wall Street and around the world after hawkish comments from Fed members

- Williams on Monday indicated that rates are not yet in a restrictive region, Evans points to bringing inflation down through making policy more restrictive

- Kashkari, considered the most dovish policymaker, indicates that the Fed is still a long way from bringing inflation down, while Mester reports that current inflation is at too high an acceptable level

- Fed's Evans: We Have Further To Go On Rate Hikes, Headed Towards 4.5%-4.75%, Likely By Springtime, balance sheet will be completely reduced within three years

- According to financial institutions, the Fed is not yet ready to announce a pivot, although labor market data may prompt it to do so

- Thanks to this stance, the dollar is returning to strength. EURUSD is falling around 0.98 and it was not uncommon in the G10 to see a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies in the order of 1%.

- Today's data on jobless claims showed that a slowdown may have begun. Claims came in at 219,000 against the previous level of 190,000. 

- Oil tried to reduce the gains somewhat after yesterday's surprise move by OPEC+, which decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, although realistically the cut may be about half of that

- Biden considers various options on how to increase oil supply with latest OPEC+ decision

- ECB minutes weakened the euro, as they may suggest that further hikes will be smaller than the last one (75 bps)

- Gas inventories rose by 129 billion cubic feet, but US gas prices rose moderately today

- Talks between Elon Musk and Twitter are stuck in part over musk’s statement that his offer is now contingent on receiving $13 billion in debt financing - people familiar with the matter.

- A strong dollar, with yields rising above 3.8%, is pushing gold back closer to the $1,700 per ounce area. Silver is trading at $20.5 per ounce

- Indices on Wall Street lost most of their earlier losses, although they lost nearly 1% after the European session ended. Indexes in Europe lost mostly less than 1%. 

- Despite the strength of the dollar, Bitcoin was able to return above $20,000 today.

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