- The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 bps, as expected; however, it communicated that the path for inflation in 2024 will be bumpy and raised inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025. As a result, EURUSD is trading up 0.2% today and is approaching 1.09
- According to the bankers, inflation will be on target in Q4 2025, and in the European economy, the risk of a slowdown still outweighs the chance of significant growth. The ECB was followed by Denmark's central bank, which also cut rates by 25 basis points today
- German industrial orders data came in below forecasts; orders fell -0.2% m/m versus a 0.6% rebound forecast and -0.4% previously
- Eurozone retail sales readings also came as a negative surprise, coming in flat y/y versus expectations of 0.2% with 0.5% previously. Month-on-month sales surprisingly fell -0.5% versus -0.3% forecast and 0.8% growth previously
- Major, European indices posted gains of 0.4%-0.5%. Again, the Polish WIG20, which gained 0.7%, fared better against Western benchmarks
- U.S. index contracts closed today's session marginally lower. US2000 loses nearly 0.6%; US500, US30 and US100 lose between 0.1-0.2%. Nvidia (NVDA.US) is doing poorly, posting a 2% correction, and Super Micro (SMCI.US) follows suit with a nearly 3% decline
- Data from the U.S. labour market indicated a larger-than-expected increase in unemployment claims to 229,000 versus 220,000 estimates and 219,000 previously. Continuing claims also rose, and labour costs were revised up to 4% from 4.9% in the first reading and 4.7% previously
- In the effect of weaker dollar and weaker U.S. macro, gold futures are trading up nearly 0.8% today, while silver futures are already up nearly 4.4%. Contracts for the U.S. dollar (USDIDX) are losing almost 0.16% today, and yields on 10-year treasuries have seen a drop to just under 4.29% from 4.62% at the end of May
- Oil prices are trading up nearly 2% today, with Brent rising again to $80 per barrel. J.P. Morgan analysts expect low inventories to be a positive factor for oil during the summer. They indicated that oil will return to prices between $80-$90 in September. Today's rise can be justified rather by rate cuts and technical indicators, suggesting an oversold condition, in recent days, which contributed to covering short positions in the face of increased buying activity
- Cryptocurrencies are trading mostly higher, with the price of BTC settling around $71,000 USD. ETF funds bought nearly $1.4 billion worth of BTC during June 3-5, indicating a return of interest in Bitcoin among institutions
- Chicago wheat ends today session at $642 per barrel despite Russian Sovecon warning about draught conditions and country's crop revised lower again to 80.7 mmt vs 82.1 mmt previously
Among U.S. publicly traded companies, Tesla (TSLA.US) is leading the gains, rising more than 2% today, and PayPal (PYPL.US) with nearly 6% growth. Salesforce (CRM.US) is also doing great, with a nearly 3% rally. Dell (DELL.US) is trading down more than 3%, - ZIM (ZIM.US) shares are losing nearly 17% after comments from Morgan Stanley, which expects spot freight rates to fall in 2024 from high levels today. Weakness is also evident in other companies in the freight sector, including commodities, with Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK.US) losing nearly 5%
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