Daily Summary: Investors Concerns Rise Ahead of Earnings Season

USA

• Monday’s session on the New York market is starting with increasing investor caution. Investors are clearly shifting into a wait and see mode ahead of the release of key CPI inflation data and the start of quarterly financial reports from the banking sector. In the first hours, supply has the upper hand, but declines remain moderate. The biggest loser is the U.S. technology index, whose futures are down about 0.7%.
• A major negative fundamental pressure is news about the progress of China’s CXMT. Concerns are amplified by warnings from Intel and Broadcom representatives about capital constraints for AI development.
• The U.S. bond market is closed today due to Columbus Day, which limits liquidity and focuses equity market attention on the Wall Street bank earnings season that begins on Tuesday. The absence of liquidity in the debt market increases uncertainty in the equity market.

Company news, USA

• Semiconductors: Micron Technology (MU.US) falls 4% and AMD (AMD.US) loses 2% after reports that Chinese competitor CXMT has developed a new memory architecture capable of holding more data, raising concerns about margin erosion for Western producers. Sentiment in the segment also worsened after warnings from Broadcom and Intel management about a capital shortfall for expanding AI infrastructure.
• Adobe (ADBE.US): The stock drops 3.0% after a Wells Fargo note. Analysts pointed to cracks in the previous growth story and rising pressure from alternative generative models.
• Salesforce (CRM.US): Shares rise 2.5% after BofA Global Research upgraded the rating to “buy”. The institution cites accelerating monetization of enterprise AI tool deployments and improving cost discipline.
• Biogen (BIIB.US): The stock rises 3% following a JPMorgan note. The bank points to a highly promising pipeline of catalysts and new drug approvals through 2027.
• Iren (IREN.US): Shares gain 4% after a The Information report stating that the former mining company, now an AI data center provider, signed a multi year cloud contract with the startup Anthropic.
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC.US): The stock jumped more than 10% on unofficial reports that private equity funds GTCR and Elliott Investment Management are in advanced talks to buy the company and take it private.
• IonQ (IONQ.US): Trading in the quantum company’s shares was halted after it announced the acquisition of Elisity for up to USD 1.3 billion in stock, aimed at building a cybersecurity platform resistant to threats in the quantum era. Before the halt, the stock was down about 3%.

Europe

• Signals of de escalation between the U.S. and Russia provide moderate support for European index prices. Spain is the top performer, with the main index up more than 1.3%. Poland, the UK, and Germany remain in the second tier with gains of around 0.7%.
• MUFG analysts point to dollar consolidation and the vulnerability of technology indices to a short term correction due to traders hedging positions.
• The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to American economists Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford for research on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics.
• The Italian government announced tax relief for software investments in the 2027 budget and plans to raise at the EU level the issue of greater fiscal flexibility to cushion energy price pressures.

Company news, Europe

• Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY.US): The pharmaceutical company announced that a late stage trial of a lower dose of an experimental lung disease drug met its primary endpoint. However, the initial gains were erased and the stock is currently down about 3%.
• LVMH (MC.FR): The French luxury group released results. Despite revenue declines in key segments, growth in the retail and alcohol segments offset part of the losses. After hours trading indicates about a 1% gain.
• Rheinmetall (RHM.DE): German defense companies, Rheinmetall and Henhold strengthen by 2.5% and 5%, respectively, after an optimistic note from Morgan Stanley.

Forex

• The British pound strengthens against a basket of currencies amid eurozone problems and a hawkish interpretation of BoA communication. Gains in the British currency are around 0.2% to 0.4%.
• Consumer inflation in India unexpectedly accelerated in September to 5.54% year over year (the 11th consecutive month of increases). An intervention package presented by the RBI managed to contain pressure on the currency after the high inflation print.

Commodities

• European gas rises about 5%. The main pressure remains issues with LNG deliveries from the Middle East, compounded by the approaching heating season. According to Reuters, European gas storage may end the injection season at only 75% to 78% full, around 10 percentage points below the five year average.
  • Importantly, the latest weather forecasts also point to possible cooling in northwestern Europe in the second half of October.
• U.S. natural gas declines as part of a normalization after gains driven by a recent hurricane.
• Brent crude oil rises more than 2% and breaks above USD 106 per barrel after missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Weekend reports of a Russian U.S. agreement do not appear to be putting pressure on commodity prices.

Crypto

• Declines dominate the cryptocurrency market.
  • Among the major coins, Solana posts the biggest drop, down 2.5% to USD 107.
  • Bitcoin falls more than 1% to USD 82,300.
  • Ether slips 0.7% to USD 2,500.