Daily Summary: Oil most expensive since November 2022, dollar and indices await US inflation data

8:47 pm 12 September 2023

  • The second day of the week closes fairly flat on Wall Street. The US500 index closes unchanged, while the technological US100 lost 0.40%. The beginning of the session brought slightly larger declines, but in the second half of the day, the indices made up for the losses.

  • The session in Europe ended mixed. The German DAX and the French CAC40 recorded losses, while the London FTSE100 and the Spanish IBEX35 gained slightly.

  • According to Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon, the Fed still has a lot of work to do to combat inflation. However, the chances of a “soft landing” have greatly increased, even though the economic prospects remain mixed.

  • Before noon, we learned ZEW data, which showed slightly weaker indicators than the forecasts assumed, the current conditions in the economy continue to deteriorate, which also goes hand in hand with expectations themselves.

  • We did not observe greater volatility in the Forex market. EURUSD remains below the key resistance of 1.0750, while the GBPUSD currency is fluctuating around 1.2470.

  • The złoty deepens losses, EURPLN went above 4.65 zł today, and the USDPLN rate rose to 4.35 zł.

  • Oil prices reached their highest levels since November 2022 today.

  • In its latest report on short-term prospects for energy commodities (STEO), the EIA indicated that it expects Brent oil prices to be around $93 in Q4 of this year. However, in the second half of 2024, the forecast predicts a decrease in the average oil price to $87.

  • Tomorrow, investors will focus on August inflation data from the US, which will be published at 2:30 pm. The consensus assumes a reading of the main inflation at 3.6% year-on-year and base at 4.3% year-on-year.

  • In the cryptocurrency market, we observe a rebound resulting from the recent strong suppression of the market with negative events. Bitcoin managed to bounce over 4.0%, rising above the levels of yesterday's declines.

  • The driving force for the increase was a so-called short squeeze of short positions, which caused a sharp increase in price. Another factor could be the news of the submission of an application for a Bitcoin spot ETF for the first time by the investment fund Franklin Templeton.

OIL.WTI quotes were at their highest levels since November 2022. Looking at the D1 interval, we observe a resistance test resulting from measuring 161.8% of Fibonacci, determined on the last downward correction. Source: xStation5

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