Rising oil prices are limiting gains on EUR/USD, with the pair falling to 1.177, even though positive risk sentiment would typically support its appreciation. In recent days, however, this has not been the case, as the market is increasingly convinced that a US–Iran agreement is still far from being finalized. This raises medium-term concerns about geopolitical tensions and the potential for constrained exports through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb.
US macro data came in stronger than expected today, reinforcing the view that the Fed is likely to hold off on dovish policy decisions in the foreseeable future, especially if oil prices remain around $100 or higher as we see today.
- Initial jobless claims: 207K (forecast: 213K; previous: 218K)
- Continuing jobless claims: 1,818K (forecast: 1,810K; previous: 1,787K)
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April): 26.7 (forecast: 10.3; previous: 18.1)
Bitcoin has pulled back below $74,000 and was once again rejected at the key resistance zone between $74,000 and $75,000. Cryptocurrencies appear to be losing momentum despite the ongoing rally in global equity markets, with Bitcoin down nearly 15% year-to-date, compared to a roughly 2.5% gain in the S&P 500 and a 4% increase in the Nasdaq 100.
Leaders from Gulf Arab states and Europe estimate that a US–Iran peace agreement could take around six months to finalize. They are urging both sides to extend the current ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. Gulf states continue to believe that Iran is pursuing nuclear capabilities, despite recent US and Israeli strikes. According to regional officials, any agreement should prevent Iran from enriching uranium and ban long-range ballistic missiles.
Gulf leaders are largely opposed to renewed fighting and favor a diplomatic solution led by the United States. One of the key demands is the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to restore energy flows. Officials have privately warned that a global food crisis could intensify if the waterway remains closed beyond next month. Energy prices could continue to rise if the conflict extends beyond the proposed negotiation timeline.
The DAX and FTSE gained around 0.3%, while France’s CAC40 edged slightly lower. In the euro area, monthly HICP inflation came in at 1.7%, slightly above forecasts, while annual CPI reached 2.6%, also marginally exceeding expectations. This may suggest that price pressures remain present, although still within moderate levels. Overall, European indices closed the session slightly in positive territory.
Macro data from China pointed to a mixed picture of the economy. GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year, clearly beating expectations and indicating solid economic activity. At the same time, industrial production rose by 5.7% year-on-year, also above forecasts. On the other hand, retail sales slowed to 1.7% year-on-year, and the unemployment rate increased to 5.4%, which may signal weaker consumer demand.
Japan continues to show moderate improvement in economic activity. Annual GDP growth came in at 1.0%, above expectations, with positive readings also recorded on a monthly and quarterly basis. However, machinery orders declined by 0.1% month-on-month, which may indicate some caution in corporate investment.
In the United Kingdom, industrial and trade data were generally better than expected. Industrial production fell by 0.4% year-on-year, but the result was less negative than forecast, while it increased by 0.5% month-on-month. Construction output also surprised to the upside, rising by 1.0% month-on-month. The goods trade deficit was smaller than expected, which may support the assessment of the country’s external balance.
In Switzerland, producer price inflation (PPI) came in at 1.6% year-on-year, slightly above forecasts, while the final CPI reading remained in line with expectations at 1.7% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month. These figures point to a relatively stable inflation environment.
EURUSD (H1 interval)
Source: xStation5
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