- U.S. indices are climbing today despite a mixed set of ADP and ISM services data. The US100 is up more than 0.5%, while Dow Jones futures (US30) are rising nearly 0.7% ahead of the key, NFP report scheduled tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT. European markets also posted a solid session, with the DAX closing 0.72% higher and both the FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 advancing over 0.4%.
- On Wall Street, Alphabet shares are under pressure, while Amazon leads the Big Tech pack with nearly a 4% gain. In semiconductors, Taiwan Semiconductor is notably weaker despite broad strength across the sector. After the close, Broadcom (AVGO.US) will report earnings. Media reports suggest that the Microsoft is set to dodge EU fine with offer to unbundle Teams.
Fresh U.S. data continues to show elevated price pressures in services, although the ISM prices-paid index came in slightly below forecasts, still hovering near 70. At the same time, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, with both the ADP report and ISM employment sub-index weakening.
Key U.S. data releases:
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ISM Services Index: 52 (Forecast: 51; Previous: 50.1)
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Business Activity Index: 55 (Forecast: 53; Previous: 52.6)
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Employment Index: 46.5 (Previous: 46.4)
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Prices Paid Index: 69.2 (Previous: 69.9)
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Jobless Claims: 237K (Forecast: 230K; Previous: 229K)
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Trade Balance: –78.30B USD (Forecast: –77.70B; Previous: –59.10B)
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ADP Employment Change: 54K (Forecast: 73K; Previous: 104K)
- In the tech sector, Salesforce is leading declines, down nearly 6% after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. While EPS and quarterly sales topped expectations, investors are concerned about slowing growth, which some fear could signal a shrinking market. CEO Marc Benioff downplayed AI-related risks, insisting the technology is not a threat. Elsewhere, GitLab shares fell more than 7% following a CFO change and weaker outlook.
- On the macro front, the U.S. dollar is strengthening, with the dollar index up nearly 0.3%. Sentiment in crypto remains weak — Bitcoin is down almost 2% and Ethereum over 3%. Precious metals are also under pressure, with gold falling more than 0.5% and silver retreating nearly 2%, while industrial metals saw very limited volatility.
- Energy commodities are weaker as well: oil loses more than 1% today, after the mixed EIA inventories report, while natural gas traded flat after storage data showed a 55 bcf build, in line with expectations.
Crude Oil Inventories: 2.415M (Forecast -1.9M, Previous -2.392M)
Gasoline Inventories: -3.795M (Forecast -1.4M, Previous -1.236M)
Cushing Inventories: 1.590M (Previous -0.838M)
- From the Fed, John Williams struck a slightly dovish tone, noting that U.S. inflation is unlikely to return to target until 2027. He emphasized that monetary policy remains restrictive, warned of risks of labor market slowdown, and described services inflation as “acceptable” and pointing in the right direction.
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