- US indices have been trading 'under the bar' since the start of the session, although they are clearly trying to stave off even a short-term correction. As a result, the US100 and US500 are losing in the range of 0.1 - 0.2%. Oil gains more than 3% on wave of geopolitical tensions; market awaits API inventory report scheduled for 9:30 PM BST
- As Channel 12 reported, citing sources, the Israeli military has completed its period of preparation for attacking Iran, and it looks like a response will come in the next few days.
- Earlier, Israel said the response could include bombing the headquarters of Iranian commanders, after Hezbollah carried out a failed attack on Prime Minister Netanyahu's residence
- The weakest company in the S&P500 today is Genuine Parts, which is losing nearly 20% after disappointing quarterly results. The auto parts supplier reported net profits nearly 30% below FactSet forecasts.
- Shares of engine maker GE Aerospace are also losing more than 8%. On the other hand, General Motors shares are gaining nearly 7% after very solid results. Also gaining are the shares of Philip Morris (+8.9%), whose results also exceeded investors' expectations
- The euro was also pressured by stronger data from the US regional index, the Richmond Fed. The index indicated -14 today vs. -17 forecasts and -21 previously; the industrial services sub-index rose, the industrial shipments index improved. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds gain nearly 2 basis points to approach 4.2%
- Christine Lagarde expressed partial optimism today about the downward trend in eurozone inflation, but hinted that the ECB's rate cuts could be a bit slower. The market, however, 'didn't buy' this narrative and received the statements dovishly, putting pressure on EURUSD, which is currently losing 0.1% and dropping to the 1.08 area
- Today's session on European markets passed in a weak mood. However, the CAC40, the FTSE and the German DAX all lost slightly in the range of 0.1 to 0.2%. Among emerging markets, Poland's WIG20 stood out, falling 1.2%, after surprisingly weak retail sales data
- Wheat futures, on the Chicago CBOT erased a good portion of the declines today and returned to the vicinity of $577. Russia's Sovecon today lowered its production estimate for 2025 to 80.1 million tons, down from 81.5 million this year, and traders are looking at the prospect of shrinking global wheat stocks. Nevertheless, the main sentiment remains bearish, and the CoT report indicated dominant short positions from both Managed Money and Commercials
- In the precious metals market, we are seeing strong gains today. Silver reached a new ATH, gaining 3.1% today. Gold adds 1% despite the still strengthening dollar, platinum and palladium add 2.4% each.
- Cryptocurrencies are trading in mixed sentiment, but Bitcoin remains above $67,000. Standard Chartered believes the cryptocurrency's all-time record could be reached 'in the coming weeks'. ApeCoin is losing more than 15% and deepening a sell-off caused by profit-taking, following Sunday's gains.
- Today, the IMF revised to the upside US GDP growth in 2025 to 2.2% YoY, while cutting growth forecasts for Germany both for 2024 and 2025. Now IMF expects German economy to stagnate this year, vs 0.2% YoY growth forecasted previously.
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