The easing of tensions in the Middle East is allowing investors to shift their focus back to macroeconomic data from major economies. However, the beginning of the week is not overly packed in this regard, and today's most crucial data releases are already behind us.
Macroeconomic Data
Monday
- German factory orders disappointed heavily, recording a deep decline of 3.8% month-on-month in April. This is yet another data point that does not inspire optimism regarding economic growth within the common bloc.
- The ECB interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference are scheduled for Thursday. If she highlights economic bottlenecks, the euro could come under pressure.
- According to a survey conducted by the New York Fed, one-year inflation expectations in the United States fell slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%. However, markets are already eagerly awaiting Wednesday's CPI report.
Tuesday
- German industrial production data came in slightly better than consensus, easing concerns sparked by yesterday's factory orders reading. The year-on-year decline was just 0.5%.
- China recorded a surprisingly strong rebound in trade. May exports surged by as much as 14.1% YoY. Despite an even more dynamic growth in imports (27.4% YoY), the trade balance increased.
Macroeconomic Calendar
Tuesday
Wednesday (Morning Hours)
Earnings Calendar
Europe
- Bellway PLC (BWY.LN) – BMO (Before Market Open)
- Oxford Instruments (OXIG.LN) – AMC (After Market Close)
USA
- J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM.US) – BMO (Before Market Open)
- Casey’s General Stores (CASY.US) – AMC (After Market Close)
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL.US) – AMC (After Market Close)
3 Markets to Watch
- Euro (EUR) The common currency is awaiting Thursday's ECB meeting. The central bank is expected to make a decision regarding the first interest rate hike in the current cycle. This is already fully priced in by the markets, so attention will shift toward President Lagarde's press conference.
- US100 Following Friday's decline, US indices are beginning to find their footing. Investors remain concerned about the prospect of a deeper correction. News from the Middle East remains critical.
- Norwegian Krone (NOK) The Scandinavian currency remains heavily dependent on shifts in market sentiment and highly volatile energy commodity prices. Tomorrow morning, it faces another challenge with the release of May's inflation data.
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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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