Markets reacted positively to the postponement of President Donald Trump's infamous “tariffs on everything,” which, as recently as early February, had sparked extreme concerns about the future of international trade. Initially strict and without exceptions, these tariffs are now seen by many analysts as merely a fleeting threat, as expectations regarding the U.S. administration’s decisions soften. A detailed plan for the so-called retaliatory tariffs is set to be presented to Trump at the beginning of April, while general tariffs on steel and aluminum are scheduled for mid-March.
Friday’s market volatility will primarily be driven by data from the United States. Investors will closely watch retail sales, industrial production, and foreign trade prices, which are crucial in the context of growing inflation concerns and Donald Trump’s economic plans.
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07:30 AM GMT, Switzerland - Inflation Data for January:
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PPI: actual 0.1% MoM; forecast 0.1% MoM; previous 0.0% MoM;
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PPI: actual -0.3% YoY; previous -0.9% YoY;
08:00 AM GMT, Spain - Inflation Data for January:
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Spanish CPI: forecast 0.2% MoM; previous 0.5% MoM;
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Spanish CPI: forecast 3.0% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
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Spanish HICP: forecast -0.1% MoM; previous 0.4% MoM;
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Spanish HICP: forecast 2.9% YoY; previous 2.8% YoY;
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Core CPI: forecast 2.4% YoY; previous 2.6% YoY;
09:00, Poland – Final January Inflation Data:
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CPI Index: Previous 4.7% y/y
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CPI Index: Previous 0.0% m/m
10:00, China – New Loans for January:
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Forecast 770.0B; Previous 990.0B
10:00, Eurozone – Labor Market Data:
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Employment Change (Q4): Forecast 0.8% y/y; Previous 1.0% y/y
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Employment Change (q/q) (Q4): Forecast 0.1%; Previous 0.2%
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Total Employment (Q4): Previous 169.112,9K
10:00, Eurozone – GDP Data (Revision):
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GDP (Q4): Forecast 0.9% y/y; Previous 0.9% y/y
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GDP (q/q) (Q4): Forecast 0.0%; Previous 0.4%
13:30, Canada – December Sales Data:
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Wholesale Sales: Forecast 0.1% m/m; Previous -0.2% m/m
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New Vehicle Sales: Previous 160.9K m/m
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Industrial Sales: Forecast 0.6% m/m; Previous 0.8% m/m
13:30, United States – January Retail Sales Data:
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Retail Sales: Previous 3.92% y/y
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Retail Sales: Forecast -0.2% m/m; Previous 0.4% m/m
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Retail Sales Excluding Gasoline & Autos: Previous 0.3% m/m
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Core Retail Sales: Forecast 0.3% m/m; Previous 0.4% m/m
13:30, United States – January Trade Balance:
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Import Price Index: Forecast 0.4% m/m; Previous 0.1% m/m
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Export Price Index: Forecast 0.3% m/m; Previous 0.3% m/m
14:15, United States – January Industrial Production:
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Industrial Production: Previous 0.55% y/y
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Industrial Production: Forecast 0.3% m/m; Previous 0.9% m/m
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Industrial Production: Forecast 0.1% m/m; Previous 0.6% m/m
15:00, United States – Inventory Data:
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Retail Inventories Excluding Autos (December): Forecast 0.2%; Previous 0.5%
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Business Inventories (December): Forecast 0.0% m/m; Previous 0.1% m/m
18:00, United States – GDP Data:
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Atlanta Fed GDP Model (Q1): Forecast 2.9%; Previous 2.9%
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