- European futures on indices suggest a higher opening
- US CPI publication and jobless claims (1:30 PM GMT) in investors spotlight
- Very light macro calendar in Europe, gas inventories according to EIA (3:30 PM GMT)
European index futures are gaining, following a positive Asian session in which Chinese benchmarks halted the sell-off and Japanese benchmarks rose again. We are also seeing gains on Wall Street futures, where the Fed's Williams stressed yesterday that monetary policy is restrictive and will require normalization in 2024, along with consideration of ending the QT program. The most important publication of the day will of course be the CPI inflation reading from the United States, accompanied by data from jobless claims (both readings at 1:30 PM GMT). Markets expect slightly higher readings than previously, in both cases.
For US CPI y/y, the median forecast of economists is for an increase to 3.2% from 3.1% previously. In a survey conducted, on a group of 48 economists, the highest forecast is 3.6% and the lowest is 3.1%. For the CPI m/m, the forecast suggests a 0.2% increase from the previous 0.1% (the highest estimate is 0.4%, the lowest is 0.1%). Expectations suggest slightly higher m/m inflation growth and a slight increase in US unemployment claims (from 202,000 to 210,000 today), with expectations still very low.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appIn addition, investors will learn secondary data from industry in Spain (9 AM GMT) and Italy, where a consistently small improvement in manufacturing is expected (8 AM GMT). At 3:30 PM GMT., gas market investors will look forward to the EIA inventory report, which assumes a very large decline and could bring higher volatility, especially in the context of recent rises and falls in NATGAS prices.
Macro calendar
8 AM GMT Italy, industrial production for December. Expectations: 0.2% m/m. Previously: 0.2% m/m
8 AM GMT Czech Republic, CPI inflation. Expectations: 7.3% y/y vs. 7.3% previously
1:30 PM GMT US, CPI inflation y/y. Expectations: 3.2% vs. 3.1% previously (up 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously)
- Core CPI inflation y/y. Expectations: 3.8% vs. 4% previously (up 0.3% m/m vs. 0.3% previously)
- Jobless claims. Expectations: 210k Previously: 202k.
- Continued claims: 1.8695 million vs. 1.855 million previously
3:30 PM GMT - US, gas inventories (EIA). Expectations: -122 billion cubic feet (bcf) vs. Previously. -14 billion cubic feet (bcf)
Speeches by central bankers
- 10:30 ECB Vujcic
- 16:30 ECB Vujcic
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