As we enter the final days of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the turn of the year—typically a period of low activity—will feature a surprisingly dense economic calendar. Notable releases include the rescheduled weekly oil inventory report and the FOMC meeting minutes. Although the next week coincides with the first Friday of the month, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has been delayed. With major exchanges closed on December 31 and January 1, investors should focus on EURUSD, Silver, and the US500.
EURUSD
The coming days bring a series of US macroeconomic readings: Monday’s pending home sales, Wednesday’s initial jobless claims, and Friday’s final December manufacturing PMIs for both the Eurozone and the United States. Due to the New Year’s Eve holiday on Wednesday, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting have been moved to Tuesday. This will be a pivotal event for the US dollar. The rhetoric following the recent Fed decision was ambiguous, marked by a significant split among voters on one hand, and forecasts justifying further rate cuts on the other. The minutes may clarify which of these forces will dominate the currency's valuation.
SILVER
Extreme geopolitical uncertainty and a structural supply deficit have established silver as the undisputed leader across broad asset classes in 2025. The year-end outlook is intriguing: while some investors may opt for profit-taking, others are likely to chase the aggressive upward trend. While US data and the FOMC minutes remain relevant, silver's trajectory may be more heavily influenced by updates regarding Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations and the status of the US naval blockade of Venezuela.
US500
A turbulent 2025 is drawing to an optimistic close for futures tied to the primary US equity benchmark. Notably, the US500 reached fresh all-time highs prior to the Christmas break, while the tech-heavy US100 continues to lag. Similar to the precious metals market, index futures may be subject to year-end portfolio rebalancing. However, seasonality remains a factor; the second half of December has historically favoured US equities, and the market is now approaching January, statistically one of the strongest months for average total returns.
Chart of the day - Silver (26.12.25)
Morning wrap (26.12.2025)
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