Financial markets are once again driven by global trade policy shifts, as the verbal breakdown in U.S.-China relations renews concerns about growth and competitiveness in the world’s two largest economies. Aggressive rhetoric from both Beijing and Washington casts serious doubt over the Geneva trade truce, fueling a strong return of risk aversion.
However, trade issues will compete for attention with a busy macroeconomic calendar, even on Monday. A stream of manufacturing PMI reports is expected throughout the day, along with key central bankers’ speeches (Powell, Lagarde), which will be especially important amid renewed trade tensions and related risks.
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Economic calendar for today:
07:00 GMT – Switzerland – GDP Data (Q1):
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QoQ: forecast 0.4%; previous 0.2%
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YoY: forecast 1.5%; previous 1.5%
07:00 GMT – Poland – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.30; previous 50.20
07:15 GMT – Spain – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.3; previous 48.1
07:30 GMT – Switzerland – May PMI Report:
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PMI procure.ch: forecast 48.1; previous 45.8
07:45 GMT – France – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.5; previous 48.7
07:55 GMT – Germany – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.8; previous 48.4
08:00 GMT – Poland – GDP Data (Q2):
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QoQ: forecast 0.7%; previous 1.3%
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YoY: forecast 3.2%; previous 3.2%
08:00 GMT – Eurozone – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.4; previous 49.0
13:45 GMT – USA – May PMI Report:
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Manufacturing PMI: forecast 52.3; previous 50.2
14:00 GMT – UK – Speech by BoE MPC Member Mann
14:00 GMT – USA – ISM Data (May):
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ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 49.3; previous 48.7
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ISM New Orders Index: previous 47.2
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ISM Employment Index: previous 46.5
14:00 GMT – USA – April Inflation Data:
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Construction Spending: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous -0.5% MoM
14:00 GMT – USA – ISM Data (May):
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ISM Manufacturing Index (alternative release): forecast 70.2; previous 69.8
16:00 GMT – Germany – Speech by Bundesbank’s Balz
16:30 GMT – Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde
17:00 GMT – USA – GDP Data:
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Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): forecast 3.8%; previous 3.8%
17:00 GMT – USA – Speech by Fed Chair Powell
22:30 GMT – UK – Speech by BoE MPC Member Mann (repeat appearance)
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