Earnings season in the United States is gathering pace. Yesterday's data published by IBM led to the company's largest share price drop since 1986 (we haven't seen such a sharp decline even during the bursting of the Dot Com bubble).
We have also seen perhaps the most important macroeconomic release of the month – June CPI inflation from the US. However, this is not the end of market-relevant data releases, as we have the producer inflation reading (1:30 PM) ahead, which will complete the picture outlined by yesterday's data.
Key macroeconomic releases
Tuesday
United States
- Faced with lower energy prices, many expected a decline in US inflation in June. Its scale, however, is a significant surprise for the markets. On a monthly basis, prices fell for the first time since COVID-era 2020 – by as much as 0.4%. Perhaps even more importantly, core inflation (2.6%), which is a measure excluding the most volatile energy and food prices, turned out to be far lower than expected.
- The Fed Chair appeared before Congress as part of a standard semi-annual hearing. He stated that "inflation is, in a way, a choice," taking full responsibility for price stability on behalf of the Fed. Asked about potential pressure from President Donald Trump (e.g., regarding interest rate cuts), he responded firmly that he intends to "simply do his job" and there is "no room for politics" within the central bank.
Wednesday
China
- GDP growth slowed to its lowest level since 2022. The Chinese economy grew in Q2 by 4.3% year-on-year. This is burdened by the property market crisis, weak domestic demand, and a decline in investments (down 5.7% YoY in the first half of the year). Exports, however, remain strong, especially in the technology sector.
- Data on retail sales (+1% YoY) and retail sales (+5.3%) looked slightly better.
Macroeconomic calendar
Wednesday
- Eurozone: Industrial production (May)
- Time: 10:00 AM
- Previous: 0.3%
- Consensus: -0.4%
- United States: PPI inflation (June)
- Time: 1:30 PM
- Previous: 6.5%
- Consensus: 6.2%
- Canada: Interest rate decision
- Time: 2:45 PM
- Previous: 2.25%
- Consensus: 2.25%
- South Korea: Interest rate decision
- Time: 11:30 PM
- Previous: 2.5%
- Consensus: 2.75%
Thursday
- United Kingdom: Industrial production (May)
- Time: 7:00 AM
- Previous: -0.2%
- Consensus: 1.3%
Earnings releases
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Morgan Stanley (MS.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
- Blackrock (BLK.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
- United Airlines (UAL.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
- BitMine Immersion (BTCM.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
- Kinder Morgan (KMI.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
3 markets to watch
- Oil: Investors seem not to pay much attention to the statements coming from the American president, who withdrew from the proposal to introduce a 20 percent charge on cargo flowing through the strait. Oil prices, however, remain elevated, as traffic in the strait remains very heavily restricted compared to the state from the first days of July.
- US500: The start of the earnings season brought a few very significant surprises (led by IBM). Today, further important publications follow. Moreover, the market will be digesting yesterday's inflation data and the statements coming from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- EURNOK: Since the beginning of the month, the krone has already strengthened by over 1.5% against the dollar. Key driver is, of course, the rise in energy commodity prices. In the background remains the August meeting of Norges Bank, which may bring an interest rate hike.
Morning Wrap: What’s next with the Strait of Hormuz, inflation and US interest rates? (15.07.2026)
Daily Summary: Lower inflation weakens the dollar and awakens gold and S&P 500 to gains
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Q&A from Congress Testimony: Inflation stability is a key
US Open: Nasdaq 100 gains 1% 🔼 Software stocks decline, JP Morgan rises after earnings
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
