Ethereum is up more than 9% today and testing key resistance at the 2,000 USD level. Improved sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market has also restored its correlation with Bitcoin, as we noted in last week’s analysis.
The rise in Ethereum is clearly a result of multiple positive market factors. Starting with macroeconomic drivers, such as hopes for tangible results from trade negotiations, to equity market sentiment improvements, and finally to crypto-native developments. Bitcoin has already gained nearly 30% from the bottom, and as it nears the 100,000 USD level, investor risk appetite is increasing. Today we are seeing gains across most projects, with Ethereum receiving the most attention.
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When discussing Ethereum, it’s worth mentioning the latest upgrade — Pectra — which, while not a direct growth catalyst, positively impacts network functionality.
The Ethereum Pectra upgrade (EIP-7702) introduces key improvements in account abstraction, allowing existing wallets to function like smart contracts — without needing to create new accounts. Wallets such as Ambire and Trust Wallet have already implemented these features, enabling users to:
- pay gas fees using stablecoins,
- use one wallet across multiple chains,
- automate tasks like claiming airdrops or executing swaps.
These changes improve usability, security, and privacy, and also support programmable functions that could be used by AI agents in the future.
Ethereum correlation returns
Recently, we noted that the correlation between Ethereum and Bitcoin had dropped to record lows. While Bitcoin was rallying significantly, Ethereum lagged behind. This divergence was even more visible earlier on, when Ethereum was sharply declining and Bitcoin remained in a sideways trend.
The current situation has been interesting, as we’ve seen a notable drop in correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum coincide with a strong rise in BTC’s price. This kind of setup has only occurred a few times before. In our analysis, we assume a drop in correlation below 50% over the past two months, along with a Bitcoin rise of at least 15% in the last 30 days.
In most previous cases, Ethereum quickly closed the gap with Bitcoin, gaining significantly within a maximum of one month from the moment the divergence occurred. A key condition for continuing this upward move, however, was the maintenance of relatively positive market sentiment — something that was lacking on January 12, 2020, and January 29, 2025. But in the remaining cases, the scale of the rally was significantly higher, and the current rebound closely matches the previous three instances (2020, 2023, and 2024).
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