Fed's Musalem signals rising risk of deteriorating US labour market

6:10 pm 8 August 2025

Alberto Musalem from the Fed comments on the economic situation and monetary policy in the United States. Here are the key takeaways from his remarks.

  • Growth below potential poses risks to the labor market.

  • Labor supply and demand have cooled simultaneously.

  • Data integrity is critically important to the economy.

  • Companies are using various strategies to adapt to tariffs, including cost-cutting and negotiating with suppliers.

  • The Fed is currently trying to balance both sides of its mandate.

  • The inflationary impact of tariffs is most likely to be short-lived.

  • The labor market is balanced, but weaker economic activity poses risks to employment.

  • There is a real probability of persistent inflation.

  • Most of the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to fade.

  • Looking ahead, there is a risk that the Fed may miss both its inflation and employment targets, with particular concern for jobs.

  • At present, the Fed is missing its inflation target but remains aligned with its employment mandate—the labor market is near full employment.

  • Companies most reliant on imports are passing on costs, while those closer to the consumer are less likely to raise prices so far.

  • Businesses are not yet resorting to layoffs to reduce costs.

  • Companies are using various strategies to adapt to tariffs, including cost-cutting and supplier negotiations.

  • Firms remain cautious about capital expenditures and hiring.

  • Businesses continue to report a shortage of skilled labor.

  • Bankers report that funding pressures have eased and credit quality is good.

  • Economic activity appears stable—neither growing nor declining.

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