- Gold gains more than 1.3% rising above $4000 per ounce
- Kalshi prices in 22 days of US government shutdown
- Markets are betting on October Fed rate cut
- Gold gains more than 1.3% rising above $4000 per ounce
- Kalshi prices in 22 days of US government shutdown
- Markets are betting on October Fed rate cut
Gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce and continues its rally toward the $4,050 level. The RSI indicator on the daily timeframe is approaching 90, signalling overbought conditions, while the gap between the price and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50, orange line) is widening. The average currently sits around $3,650, roughly 10% below today’s local highs. Looking at trading volume, buying activity has dominated for the past four sessions. The Kalshi prediction market estimates that the U.S. government shutdown will last about 22 days, implying that federal offices may not reopen until around October 22. This means the Federal Reserve will not receive key macroeconomic data in the meantime, including the September NFP and CPI inflation reports. Given the labor market slowdown, signaled by nearly all indicators (including those outside the BLS), the Fed is almost certain to announce an interest rate cut tomorrow.
Source: xStation5
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