- Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates.
- The bank had previously expected gold to end the year at $5,300 per ounce.
- The precious metal is extending losses that began after the Fed's policy meeting, falling to around $4,150 per ounce.
- Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates.
- The bank had previously expected gold to end the year at $5,300 per ounce.
- The precious metal is extending losses that began after the Fed's policy meeting, falling to around $4,150 per ounce.
Gold prices are declining across global markets today, and Goldman Sachs' decision to lower its gold price target to $4,900 appears broadly consistent with current conditions in the metals market, where sentiment continues to cool following the speculative rally seen earlier this year. After the U.S.–Iran agreement, investors shifted their focus away from geopolitical risks and back toward Federal Reserve policy and a stronger U.S. dollar, putting gold on track for a third consecutive weekly decline.
- Investors have quickly returned to pricing in a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario in the United States. While the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, its communication was interpreted as hawkish. Several policymakers still see room for at least one additional rate hike before year-end.
- U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, while the dollar strengthened to its highest level in more than a year. This creates a challenging environment for gold, which offers no yield and tends to become less attractive when interest-bearing assets provide higher returns.
- Markets are currently pricing in more than an 80% probability of another Fed rate increase before the end of the year, limiting investment demand for the precious metal.
- Additional uncertainty emerged after negotiations between Washington and Tehran were postponed. Although the interim agreement remains in place, questions are beginning to arise over its long-term durability.
- Oil prices rebounded on Friday, but on a weekly basis they remain under significant pressure. Expectations that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could gradually normalize have reduced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices.
- Weakness is also visible across the broader metals complex. Silver has fallen by around 2%, platinum by approximately 1.5%, while copper has also come under pressure, suggesting a more cautious investor stance toward the commodity sector as a whole.
- In the near term, gold remains largely driven by the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. As long as markets continue to price in higher U.S. interest rates, the upside potential for the precious metal may remain limited.
GOLD (H1 chart)
Source: xStation5
US Closed: Postponed negotiations weigh on futures
Market wrap: Limited volatility and a strong dollar
Chart of the day: GBPCHF snaps back on retail sales recovery 🇬🇧 📈 (19.06.2026)
Economic Calendar: Liquidity Overshadowed by Juneteenth (19.06.2026)
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
