The weekend exchange of fire between Israel and Iran put the region's fragile ceasefire into question. Under pressure from Washington, both sides halted further strikes. Containing the situation helped calm market anxieties, allowing companies to recover some of their previously incurred losses.
- Key US indices closed in the green yesterday: the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%).
A less uniform sentiment was observed across European markets. However, it is worth noting that they suffered significantly fewer losses on Friday.
- Gainers: The Italian FTSE MIB (+0.6%), British FTSE 100 (+0.1%), and Polish WIG20 (+0.6%) all strengthened.
- Losers: The German DAX (-0.6%), French CAC40 (-0.2%), and Spanish IBEX 35 (-0.7%) ended the day with losses.
🌍 Geopolitics
The most severe crisis between Israel and Iran since April has been defused.
- Israel reserves the right to conduct targeted operations in southern Lebanon if Hezbollah resumes shelling.
- Iran, in turn, declares it will resume attacks if Israel restarts airstrikes on Lebanon.
🛢️ Commodities
Energy commodity prices surged by nearly 4% following Monday's market opening, but most of those gains have already been erased.
- Brent crude is currently trading at just over $93 per barrel, while WTI sits around $90.
- TTF gas (Dutch exchange) per MWh has dropped back below $50, while NATGAS hovers around $3.15.
Precious metals prices are stabilizing, with both gold and silver posting modest gains today.
- A troy ounce of gold currently costs around $4347, while silver stands at $68.5.
📈 Macroeconomic Data
Europe:
- Monday's data on German industrial orders disappointed sharply, recording a deep month-on-month decline of 3.8% in April. This adds to the growing pessimism regarding economic growth within the common bloc.
- The ECB's interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde's press conference are scheduled for this Thursday. If she highlights these economic vulnerabilities, the Euro could come under pressure.
- On a slightly brighter note, industrial production data published this morning came in better than consensus, showing a year-on-year decline of just 0.5%.
Asia:
- Quite opposite news arrived from China, where a powerful rebound in trade was recorded. May exports surged by 14.1% y/y.
- Despite an even more dynamic increase in imports (27.4% y/y), the trade balance surplus expanded, which should support the Yuan.
United States:
- According to a survey conducted by the New York Fed, one-year inflation expectations fell slightly from 3.6% to 3.5%. However, markets are keenly waiting for Wednesday's CPI report publication.
🌏 Asia
Asian markets are posting significant gains today:
- KOSPI (+8%): The South Korean index leads the rally, recovering yesterday's losses. Volatility on the index has been exceptionally high recently, amplified by the introduction of leveraged single-stock ETFs (targeting Samsung and SK Hynix).
- Nikkei 225 (+1.9%): Japan's index also posts substantial gains.
- Chinese Indices: Also in the green, with the Hang Seng (+0.4%) and the Shanghai SE Composite (+0.7%).
💱 Currencies
G10:
- A slight improvement in sentiment regarding the Middle East situation allowed the New Zealand Dollar (+0.7% vs. Monday's opening) and the high-beta Swedish Krona (+0.5%) to strengthen.
- The Euro is also marginally up (+0.2%).
- On the flip side, the Norwegian Krone is struggling, weighed down by the retreat of energy commodity prices from Monday's peaks.
EM (Emerging Markets):
- Driven by renewed interest in the South Korean stock market, the Won gained 3.2%.
- At the top of the rankings are also currencies from countries most exposed to a potential long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the South African Rand and the Hungarian Forint.
For a deeper dive into the FX market, read yesterday's Currency Review, where we take a closer look at the Euro, Dollar and other G10/EM currencies.
₿ Cryptocurrencies
Both Bitcoin ($63,360) and Ethereum ($1,689) remain close to their local lows.
—
Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB
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