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Markets in Japan remain closed for Culture Day. Major currency pairs are trading within tight ranges. Investors are focusing on tomorrow’s RBA decision and today’s PMI and ISM data.
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OPEC maintained its planned production increase of +137,000 barrels per day (in line with expectations) but announced a pause in hikes for Q1 2026 due to winter oversupply concerns — an unexpected shift that supported prices early in the week.
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Fed Governor Waller voiced support for another rate cut in December, citing a weaker labor market and declining inflation despite macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown.
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He also added that he would accept a nomination for Fed Chair.
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Trump ruled out sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, hinted at “secret plans” for Venezuela, and said U.S. troops “could be deployed” in Nigeria.
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He also mentioned that he meets regularly with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and does not intend to share Blackwell chips abroad.
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Melbourne Institute inflation rose to 3.1% y/y (remaining elevated), household spending increased +0.2% m/m (weak), building permits jumped +12%, while ANZ job ads fell −2.2% (fourth consecutive decline).
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The RBA is likely to keep rates unchanged on Tuesday.
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The manufacturing PMI for October fell from 50.7 to 49.4, signaling renewed weakness in the production sector.
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The private manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.2 to 50.6. Domestic demand remained stable, but exports weakened amid tariff-related uncertainty.
BREAKING: UK manufacturing PMI slightly above estimates 🇬🇧 📈
BREAKING: PMI data from European countries came in line with expectations 🔎
Economic calendar: PMI, ISM, and ADP ahead this week 📄
BREAKING: Swiss inflation slows again 📉
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