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Wall Street closed in the green yesterday, erasing part of the losses from the end of last week (S&P 500: +0.7%, DJIA: +0.2%, Nasdaq: +1.2%). Small-cap stocks experienced a correction (Russell 2000: -0.2%). Futures on indices in Europe and the US point to continued optimism during today’s session (US100: +0.25%, US500: +0.2%, EU50: +0.45%).
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Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs came into effect at midnight (e.g. UK: 10%, EU and Japan: 15%, Switzerland: 39%). The US President also threatened 100% tariffs on semiconductors, although companies investing in the US are expected to receive exemptions in this area, which reassures investors about potential supply chain disruptions.
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Apple (AAPL.US) announced an additional $100 billion investment as part of a new “America Manufacturing Program.” The funds will be used to build new facilities that will produce components for Apple products. The project aims to create 20,000 new jobs over 4 years and aligns with Trump’s American manufacturing agenda. Apple shares extended their after-hours gains by another 2.5%.
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Announced semiconductor tariff exemptions are fueling optimism in the Asia-Pacific session. JP225, HK.cash and CHN.cash are up around 0.5%, AU200 is trading flat, while India’s Nifty 50 continues to decline due to Trump’s retaliatory tariffs being raised to 50%.
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The stagnation in Australia is mainly due to a collapse in imports (-3.1% y/y, previous: +3.3%). The trade surplus rose to 5.365 billion AUD (forecast: 3 billion).
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Toyota reported a 37% drop in net income for the last quarter. The company lowered its operating income forecast from 3.8 trillion yen to 3.2 trillion, citing tariffs as the reason.
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China’s trade balance dropped more than expected (from $114.7B to $98.2B; forecast: $104.7B), due to an unexpected increase in imports (+4.1% y/y, forecast: -1%, previous: +1.1%). Exports surged 7.2% (forecast: 5.6%, previous: 5.9%), indicating strong shipping activity during the ongoing trade peace with the US, which will likely be extended beyond August 12.
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In the forex market, Antipodean currencies are leading (AUDUSD: +0.2%, NZDUSD: +0.25%), driven by Australia's deeper trade surplus. The US dollar index paused a 4-day decline. The Swiss franc and euro (EURUSD: 1.167) are strengthening by 0.1% against the dollar. The pound, yen, and Canadian dollar are postining marginal gains against the USD (0.3-0.7%)
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Gold is rebounding by 0.25% to $3,377 per ounce, silver by 0.6% to $38.05 per ounce, and both Brent and WTI oil are recovering after 5 days of declines (approx. +0.75%) amid Trump’s pressure on importers of Russian oil. NATGAS is extending gains by 0.25%.
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Sentiment in the crypto market is mixed: Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $114,670, Ethereum is up 0.15% to $3,680, while most smaller tokens are trading lower (Chainlink: -0.5%, Solana: -0.2%).
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