Morning Wrap (08.07.2025)

8:43 am 8 July 2025

  • Indices across the Asia-Pacific region are gaining during the second session of the week, with increases ranging from 0.30% to 0.90%.

  • Trump stated that the August 1 tariff implementation date is “not 100% certain”, backtracking from previous, more decisive statements. This marks another shift following earlier postponements from April 9 to July 9, and then to August 1. While this provides more time for negotiations, it also extends the period of market uncertainty. Markets responded with U.S. dollar weakness, and the USD Index (USDIDX) is currently down 0.20%.

  • Despite overall dollar softness, the Japanese yen weakened after Trump reaffirmed the possibility of 25% tariffs on Japan. The USDJPY pair climbed to a two-week high, gaining 0.10% today.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding interest rates at 3.85%, defying expectations of a 25 basis point cut (expected by over 90% of traders). The decision passed by a 6–3 vote.

  • The RBA said it needs more data—particularly the July CPI report—before making further moves. The AUDUSD pair spiked sharply in response to the shift in rate expectations.

  • The RBA emphasized that maintaining price stability and full employment remains its primary objective. While inflation is easing, the labor market remains tight, and global uncertainty lingers. Traders now expect a possible rate cut in August, rather than an extended pause.

  • Australia’s business conditions index rose to its highest level since March 2024, driven by growth in sales, employment, and profits. Business confidence improved for the third straight month, surprising analysts amid expectations of a slowdown. This influenced RBA rate projections.

  • Trump announced the need to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, marking a shift from his previous stance of limiting support. He expressed disappointment with Putin and the ongoing war, signaling worsening relations following the BRICS summit.

  • Taiwan has not yet received formal notice from the U.S. regarding new tariffs. Although a 32% tariff was announced back in April, the implementation timeline remains unclear.

  • Trump also declared that Iran will not become a nuclear state and announced planned talks, warning that a new military strike remains possible if necessary.

The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.

Share:
Back

Join over 1 600 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world.