- Futures on Wall Street indices are flat; dollar weakens slightly
- Futures on Wall Street indices are flat; dollar weakens slightly
- U.S. index futures are trading flat today, while the dollar (USDIDX) is down by 0.1%. The key events on the agenda include the ECB minutes at 11:30 AM GMT, a speech by Jerome Powell at 12:30 PM GMT, and wholesale trade data at 16:00. Around 9:00 GMT — before Wall Street opens—PepsiCo will report its Q3 earnings, effectively marking the start of the U.S. large-cap earnings season.
- Yesterday’s September FOMC minutes showed that the Federal Reserve has adopted a cautiously optimistic tone toward economic growth. Fed officials revised upward their GDP growth forecasts for 2025–2028, signalling growing confidence that the U.S. economy can maintain momentum as monetary policy gradually eases.
- Policy consensus points toward continued but moderate easing — nearly all participants supported a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, while some preferred no change and one favoured a deeper, 50-basis-point cut. This indicates the Fed’s intent to balance supporting growth with maintaining inflation control.
- Inflation vigilance remains central despite the softer stance — participants acknowledged that inflation risks persist, but also noted increasing downside risks to the labour market. They agreed that tools such as the standing repo facility could help stabilise money markets during the quantitative tightening process.
- Precious metals remain near recent highs; gold is down by just 0.1%, while silver is up by 0.5%. Cryptocurrencies, however, are under pressure — Bitcoin trades around USD 122,000, down from USD 125,000 earlier, and Ethereum is losing nearly 2%.
- Natural gas futures are down almost 1%. At 2:30 PM GMT, the EIA will release its weekly storage data, with the market expecting a sharp increase to 77 bcf from 53 bcf previously.
- Donald Trump reiterated that not all federal employees will receive back pay for the government shutdown period, while the IRS announced that 46% of its staff will be furloughed during the closure.
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