- A highly anticipated series of macro readings from the Chinese economy came below expectations once again, leading to a strong sell-off on Chinese stock exchange. As a result, the Hang Seng Index lost nearly 3.8% today and approached levels near the November 2022 lows
- China's unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December, compared to forecasts of 5% and 5% previously. Retail sales rose 7.4% versus 8% forecast and 10.1% previously. It is worth noting that the comparative period is December 2022, during which there were still many Covid restrictions in China
- China's Q4 GDP grew y/y by 5.2% vs. 5.3% growth expected and 4.9% previously. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1% vs. 1.05% forecast and 1.3% previously. China's industrial production rose 6.8% vs. 6.6% forecast and 6.6% previously
- China's new home prices fell -0.4% vs. -0.2% previously. Exports of products, excluding oil, from Singapore fell -2.8% m/m vs. -0.3% decrease previously and Baltic Dry Index fell again after the weakest week since 2008 (1324 points now vs 3200 points in December 2023)
- The mood in the Asian session was mostly weak. Recently gaining benchmarks from Japan posted modest losses, South Korea's KOSPI lost more than 2.8%. Index futures from China are trading down more than 3% today, with JAP225 contracts losing more than 1% despite a renewed 0.5% rise and USDJPY signaling favorable conditions for Japanese exporters
- Index futures in Europe are trading lower. Germany's DE40 loses 0.7% and Europe's benchmark EU50 is trading down 0.8%
- Wall Street reduced bets on rate cuts yesterday after a statement from the Fed's Waller put a question mark over whether market expectations for the scale of monetary easing in the US are realistic. The priced probability of a rate cut in March fell to about 65% from nearly 80% on Friday.
- Yields on 10-year U.S. bonds exceeded 4% yesterday, Wall Street indexes closed the session slightly lower, and the dollar index rose to its highest level since March. The dollar benchmark USDIDX is trading up 0.2% today and extends yesterday's streak
- Precious metals are still under pressure. Gold loses 0.5% and retreats to 2018 USD per ounce, silver loses almost 1%
- Morgan Stanley shares fell more than 5% yesterday on expectations of lower margins for the investment bank's wealth management business, wealth margins. Shares of rival Goldman Sachs rose slightly yesterday as profit exceeded expectations by nearly 50%.
- Bitcoin is losing nearly 1% today and retreating below $43,000 again. The sentiment of cryptocurrencies is mostly weak, with most projects posting small declines.
- Punchbowl reports that US President Biden will hold talks today with the leaders of the Democratic and Republican parties on additional funding for Ukraine war
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