- Global equity markets are extending their rebound for a third consecutive session ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision (19:00, with Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 19:30). Futures on US and European indices are also up around 0.5%, pointing to the potential for further gains once those markets open.
- The market is not expecting a change in US interest rates and is pricing rates at around 3.75%, with a lower median rate path in the near term and a slightly higher one over the longer term.
- Equity markets appear to be largely looking past current geopolitical tensions for now, even as the conflict involving Iran continues to fuel concerns about energy prices and inflation. Oil prices have declined, while equities have broadly moved higher, suggesting a more constructive short-term outlook among investors.
- The MSCI All Country World Index, a widely followed benchmark of global equities, rose by 0.4%, marking its longest streak of gains in nearly a month.
- Asian markets outperformed, rising by around 2%, supported by strong advances in major technology companies such as Samsung, which investors view as relatively insulated from tensions in the Middle East.
- Overall sentiment points to cautious optimism rather than full conviction, as investors weigh improving market momentum against an unresolved geopolitical backdrop.
- At the same time, military operations in the region continue. The US and Israel are carrying out further strikes, with little clarity on when the campaign may conclude. Israel reported yesterday that it had killed Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, in an overnight operation, further escalating an already tense situation.
- Donald Trump also signaled a more aggressive stance, announcing plans to expand attacks on Kharg Island — Iran’s main oil export hub — while Gulf states continue to face Iranian drone attacks.
- In FX markets, the US dollar index slipped by 0.1%, with investors holding back from committing to a continued bullish trend ahead of the Fed announcement.
- US Treasuries strengthened, with the yield on the 10-year note falling by 2 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting solid demand for safer assets.
- Precious metals were slightly weaker, with gold up just over 0.1%. However, the quoted level of “below $5,000 per ounce” appears inconsistent with typical gold pricing, even in periods of geopolitical stress and stagflation risks such as those currently observed.
Charts (US100, OIL)
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
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