Morning wrap (20.02.2026)

Oil climbed to six-month highs and global equities came under pressure as rising tensions around Iran undermined risk appetite. Brent rose 0.5% to $72 per barrel after Donald Trump said Iran has at most 15 days to reach a nuclear deal, and the US deployed additional Marine forces to the Middle East. The weekly gain in oil now exceeds 6%.
Beyond geopolitics, investors will focus on Friday’s US releases on economic activity and PCE inflation. Attention has intensified after minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting confirmed policymakers’ ongoing concerns about price pressures. The US Supreme Court has also set Friday as another opinion day related to tariff measures, and global markets are awaiting a decision on this front.
In Asian equities, caution prevailed: the broad MSCI Asia index fell 0.4% following similar declines on Wall Street. At the same time, US and European equity-index futures are up roughly 0.3%, suggesting some stabilization in sentiment after the initial wave of risk aversion.
South Korea continues to stand out globally: the local equity market is up 2%, reinforcing its position as the best-performing stock market worldwide year-to-date. Gains are being consistently driven by Samsung and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from renewed tightness in the memory-chip market.
The US dollar is on track for its best week in four months, as markets continue to scale back expectations for future Fed rate cuts. Demand for safe-haven assets remains a key support for the greenback amid elevated geopolitical risk, while higher oil prices raise the risk of a return in inflation pressures and a prolonged Fed pause.
Donald Trump announced that he is "directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs)."

OIL (chart, D1)

Oil has reacted twice to support in the $58–60 per barrel area and is now up roughly 20% from those lows. Previously, after breaking above the EMA200 exponential moving average, prices advanced in December 2024 and again in June 2025. However, on both occasions the rallies ultimately faded, with sellers regaining control of the market.

Source: xStation5

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
_cfuvid
OClmoOot	Expiration date 18262 days

Cookie name	Description
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
countryIsoCode
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days
_gid	Expiration date 1 day

Cookie name	Description
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_ttp	Expiration date 389 days
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 389 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days
_rdt_uuid	Expiration date 89 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days