US cattle futures (CATTLE) remain under downward pressure, as the market reacts to deteriorating macro sentiment (a pullback on Wall Street), rising corn feed costs, and concerns about future demand. An additional risk factor for the sector is the potential strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado, which could disrupt slaughter logistics.
- In the background of the sell-off is the reduction of long positions by managed funds, which has continued for several sessions. Once key technical levels were broken, additional systematic and technical selling accelerated the decline.
- The market has started to price in a scenario in which higher gasoline prices and weaker macro sentiment could limit household spending, particularly on higher-priced protein such as beef.
- The broader backdrop for the sell-off remains geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices higher for more than a week and weighed on risk assets.
- The surge in energy prices and weakness on Wall Street triggered a broader risk-off move, which also hit live cattle futures (CATTLE).
- On the cash market side, the picture is more nuanced: packers have recently been purchasing cattle at lower prices, but their margins remain negative. This suggests that despite the decline in live cattle prices, the processing sector has not yet regained operational comfort.
At the same time, reduced production is supporting wholesale beef prices. According to USDA data, beef prices are rising, indicating that the physical meat market remains relatively tight despite the pressure on futures.
Source: xStation5
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