NY Fed US household report and Fed Waller comments

7:32 pm 7 November 2023

  • Credit card delinquency rates rose among younger Americans but the increase is broad based on income and location
  • Total U.S. household debt rose 1.3% to $17.29 trillion in the third quarter
  • Student loan balances in the third quarter rose by $30 billion to $1.6 trillion
  • Total mortgage balances rose by $126 billion to $12.14 trillion in the third quarter but mortgage lending in the third quarter fell to $386 billion k/w
  • Credit card balances rose by $48 billion k/k in the third quarter to $1.08 trillion - the report indicated that the increase in credit card balances is in line with strong consumer spending and GDP  
  • Total delinquency rates for the third quarter rose 3%

Fed's Waller

  • Prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Bankers are wondering what exactly caused the rise in long-term yields.
  • In central banking terms, the rise in 10-year yields was an earthquake.
  • Labor supply also appears to be normalizing to pre-pandemic levels.
  • The labor market is cooling down and approaching its pre-pandemic average, clearly calming down
  • The economy performed very well in Q3 GDP, the Fed is watching closely.

EURUSD is trading today slightly above the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement of the September upward wave - near 1.0687. The dollar is strengthening today although yields have settled down to 4.58%. Source: xStation5

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