Brent crude oil prices (OIL) are rising today toward $70 per barrel, as markets price in a growing risk of a potential U.S. military intervention in Iran. The United States has reportedly concentrated significant forces in the Middle East, around 7% of the entire U.S. Navy, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group.
- Donald Trump warned yesterday that the U.S. Navy would strike Iran more forcefully than during the previous attack unless Tehran signs a nuclear agreement that would effectively halt Iran’s domestic nuclear program.
- Iran has reportedly categorically rejected the U.S. terms and, although the Kremlin said today that negotiations are still possible, markets appear to be pricing in a rising probability of a strike.
- Such a scenario could destabilize the entire region and lead to major disruptions in oil production, potentially pushing prices up toward $80 per barrel - the local peak from June 2025.
OIL chart (D1)
From a technical perspective, the contract has reached the round $70 per barrel level, which also acts as a key resistance zone. As long as prices remain below $71 per barrel, the broader downtrend may stay intact. If a breakout occurs, the first major reaction levels could emerge around $80 per barrel, and potentially higher - near $90, where prices last traded in April 2024.

Source: xStation5
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