Oil prices (OIL) are falling by over 7% to around $90 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that negotiations between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon appears to be holding, giving markets some room for cautious optimism. The current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire on April 21.
Brent is heading for a weekly decline, while WTI is down nearly 10% since the start of the week. Washington and Tehran are “very close” to reaching a deal, according to Trump, who added that Iran has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons for over 20 years. Limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been cited by Trump as one of the main reasons behind the conflict. The key factor remains the Strait of Hormuz — currently partially blocked (around 20% of global oil supply). Any credible prospect of reopening it implies a return of significant volumes to the market, putting downward pressure on prices.
The market remains highly binary:
- progress in negotiations = downside pressure
- breakdown or escalation = sharp rebound
Current prices (~$90–$100) reflect a balance between:
- hopes for de-escalation
- ongoing supply disruptions
Physical supply remains constrained: flows through Hormuz are still far below normal levels, and the U.S. blockade continues to limit Iranian exports. Even if the strait reopens, supply recovery will be gradual — the market will not rebalance immediately, which may keep prices relatively elevated. Demand is starting to act as a counterforce: both the IEA and OPEC signal weaker global demand in the coming months, adding structural pressure on prices.
Volatility is likely to remain high, as markets are reacting more to geopolitical headlines than to short-term fundamentals. Long-term risk remains: restoring disrupted production could take up to two years, and control over the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved.
OIL (D1 timeframe)
Yesterday, oil approached $100 and met strong resistance, then pulled back below the EMA50 (orange line), which may indicate extended bearish momentum. If negotiations lead to narrowing differences between Tehran and Washington, prices could come under pressure toward the $80 area, where several key price reactions are visible, and potentially toward $70–75, a pre-war levels. The correction from local highs already exceeds 20%. If talks collapse and Iran maintains its nuclear stance and control over the Strait of Hormuz, Brent could return above $100 per barrel.
Source: xStation5
Rallies in European airline valuations
US OPEN: The Strait of Hormuz is fully open 💥Euphoria in the markets 🚀
⬇️WTI Oil declines nearly 9%
OIL dips below $90 first time in a month🛢️ 📉 Iran will hand uranium to the US❓
The content of this report has been created by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, (KRS number 0000217580) and supervised by Polish Supervision Authority ( No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005). This material is a marketing communication within the meaning of Art. 24 (3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II). Marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the area of investment advisory, within the meaning of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (i.e. Journal of Laws 2019, item 875, as amended). The marketing communication is prepared with the highest diligence, objectivity, presents the facts known to the author on the date of preparation and is devoid of any evaluation elements. The marketing communication is prepared without considering the client’s needs, his individual financial situation and does not present any investment strategy in any way. The marketing communication does not constitute an offer of sale, offering, subscription, invitation to purchase, advertisement or promotion of any financial instruments. XTB S.A. is not liable for any client’s actions or omissions, in particular for the acquisition or disposal of financial instruments, undertaken on the basis of the information contained in this marketing communication. In the event that the marketing communication contains any information about any results regarding the financial instruments indicated therein, these do not constitute any guarantee or forecast regarding the future results.
