Peace negotiations boost a cautious recovery in the stock markets

On Monday, August 18, a meeting took place at the White House involving Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, and seven European leaders. It can be regarded as one of the key events in the ongoing efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Although the full conclusion of the conflict is still far off, the meeting itself represents a significant step forward.

The most important outcome of the talks was the development of preliminary principles regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. This element was recognized as crucial by both the Ukrainian side and Western partners. Additionally, Donald Trump announced that the United States, together with European allies, would support Ukraine’s security within the framework of a future peace agreement. Notably, for the first time, a declaration was made about guarantees resembling Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. According to Trump’s account, Vladimir Putin did not outright reject this concept, which many observers saw as a potential breakthrough.

The atmosphere of the discussions was noticeably more constructive than during the February meeting, when Trump and Vice President Vance openly criticized Zelensky. This time, the Ukrainian president described the talks as his “best” meeting with Trump. European leaders also presented a united front against Russian aggression.

An important aspect of the discussion was also the issue of military cooperation. Ukraine proposed the purchase of American weapons worth $100 billion (to be financed by the European Union), as well as a separate agreement on drone production valued at $50 billion. These measures are intended not only to strengthen Ukraine’s defense but also to enhance its negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia.

The biggest point of contention remains the territorial issue. Putin proposed that Ukraine cede the remaining part of Donbas to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire on other frontlines. Trump described this idea as a “realistic compromise,” indicating his willingness to consider such a solution. Zelensky firmly rejected the proposal, emphasizing that any border changes would have to be approved by a nationwide referendum, and that the vast majority of Ukrainians oppose any territorial concessions to Russia.

Although the meeting did not bring an immediate breakthrough in the form of a peace agreement, it established basic frameworks for further talks: the concept of international security guarantees, the possibility of direct negotiations between Zelensky and Putin, expanded military cooperation, and the U.S. acting as a mediator in the subsequent stages of the peace process. At the same time, ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities during the talks and ambiguous signals from Moscow raise doubts about the Kremlin’s genuine willingness to reach a compromise.

The events in Washington, which for the first time in many months brought real hope for progress in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, triggered a moderate but clear reaction on European financial markets. Although investors did not rush into broad stock buying, subtle market gains reflected cautious optimism. Every signal pointing to a potential end of the conflict is seen as a possible factor improving economic prospects in the medium and long term. As a result, news about readiness for peace talks, proposed security guarantees, and the announced Zelensky-Putin meeting received a positive response across the market. Investors view these developments as a sign of greater geopolitical stability, which could help rebuild confidence in investments in Central and Eastern Europe and accelerate Ukraine’s recovery processes.

Key European indices recorded modest increases: the German DAX gained about 0.15%, the French CAC 40 rose by 0.5%, while the British FTSE 100 increased roughly by 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx added around 0.4%. Although these gains are moderate, they clearly reflect investors’ cautious optimism regarding the prospects of peace.

The coming weeks will be crucial. If a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin is arranged and security guarantees are formalized, it could mark the beginning of a genuine peace process. For now, however, diplomacy remains a high-stakes game in which every decision may have far-reaching geopolitical consequences.