Monetary policy panel at ECB central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal began at 3:40 pm BST. Event was watched closely as it was attended by heads of European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Key comments:
ECB President Lagarde
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We still have ground to cover
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If the baseline stands, we'll likely hike in July
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We will decide meeting by meeting
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We will have a lot more information in September
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I am not considering rate pause at the moment
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Manufacturing does not give a great hope for a strong recovery
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Transmission of policy likely to be less rapid than in the past due to fixed rate mortgages
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I may have underestimated the resilience of the economy
BoE Governor Bailey
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Economy turned out to be much more resilient
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Data showed clear signs of persistence of inflation
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We will do what's needed to meet the inflation target
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Headline inflation is to come down markedly in 2023
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Core inflation in the UK is much stickier
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I am interested that markets are expecting short-lived rates peak
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Balance sheet reduction has gone very smoothly so far
Fed Chair Powell
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Fed sees more tightening power coming through
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We believe there is more restriction coming, driven by labor market
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Strong majority is for two more rate hikes in the dot plot
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Policy may not be restrictive enough and may not be restrictive for long enough
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I wouldn't take moving at consecutive meetings off the table
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There is significant disinflation in the pipeline from rents but will take time
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I haven't seen progress in non-housing services inflation
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We need to see more softening in the labour market
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Softening is slower than expected
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There is a significant probability of a downturn but it is not the most likely case
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It is appropriate to slow pace of Fed's moves
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Response rates to data have dropped and are more volatile
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Commercial real estate is not one of reasons for June hold
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We are not nearly done at the moment
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It is going to take some time to get inflation to the goal
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I don't see anything that would make us want to adjust speed of balance sheet adjustment right now
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Underlying pace of QT is about $1 trillion per year
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I don't see us getting back to 2% this year or the next, I see us making progress
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I see us getting to 2% core inflation by 2025
BoJ Governor Ueda
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Underlying inflation is below target
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Wage inflation consistent with inflation target is well above 2%
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If we become reasonably sure about second part of inflation forecast that would be good reason for reconsidering policy change
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Economy is going to expand slightly above potential for some time
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We are seeing signs of inflation expectations rising but not fully in line with target
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China-US tensions may bring supply-chain inefficiencies
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