Bitcoin fell sharply today to around $76,500 and is testing the lower boundary of the consolidation range that has effectively been in place since the final week of August. BTC is ultimately proving not to be fully immune to the pullback on Wall Street and the strengthening U.S. dollar ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.
The market now appears almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Although such a scenario is not guaranteed and would not automatically imply further declines in Bitcoin, it could certainly weigh on inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. These flows have indirectly become an important source of support for the new bull market.
Bitcoin chart (H1, D1 timeframes)
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin has failed another attempt to break above $80,000 and continues to move lower, retreating toward $76,700, below two key moving averages: the 200-period and 50-period EMAs (red and orange lines). The RSI has fallen to around 32, indicating a shift toward bearish conditions, while the MACD is showing a crossover that could prove problematic for the bulls. Bitcoin is therefore trading at a point where hopes for a renewed bull market could still prove premature.
Source: xStation5
Bitcoin has so far failed to break through the key $83,500-$84,000 area, defined by recent price reactions and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward impulse. If the price begins to fall more decisively from current levels, a test of the $45,000-$50,000 area cannot be ruled out. Conversely, a breakout above $84,000 could give bulls hope that Bitcoin may gradually start reclaiming the $100,000 level.
Source: xStation5
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